17 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Netanya Stadium, Netanya
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Maccabi Netanya 1-0 Ironi Kiryat Shmona.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Maccabi Netanya, 25% draw, 29% Ironi Kiryat Shmona — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Maccabi Netanya at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maccabi Netanya96%Draw4%Ironi Kiryat Shmona0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Aziz Ouattara Mohammed
34'
44'
Talles Costa
Basam Zaarura
45'
63'
🔁Alexandru Popout: Niv Michael Gabay
63'
🔁Rufat Abdullazadaout: Ariel Sheratzky
🔁Isaac Rodrigues de Limaout: Yarin Abuhatzera
63'
🔁Aziz Ouattara Mohammedout: Dor Hugy
64'
🔁Oz Biluout: Eylon Almog
64'
🔁Basam Zaaruraout: Nadav Niddam
64'
69'
🔁Bilal Shaheenout: Mor Simantov
•Valentin Simion
73'
⚽Davó (pen)
74'
77'
Ariel Sheratzky
79'
🔁Talles Costaout: nadav markovitch
🔁Valentin Simionout: Karm Jaber
86'
90+4'
Shai Barda

Match stats — Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

49%Possession51%
11Shots17
3On target3
3Corners6
1.53xG1.41

Goals against chances

Maccabi Netanya1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Ironi Kiryat Shmona0 from 1.41 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Maccabi Netanya 4-2-3-1
  • 22SamuG
  • 12A. AzugiD
  • 23O. VerdonD
  • 6B. KonatéD
  • 2G. MorozovD
  • 32A. OuattaraM
  • 98G. SimionM
  • 10O. BiluM
  • 16B. ZaaruraM
  • 7IsaacM
  • 83Matheus DavóF
Substitutes
  • 9E. AlmogF
  • 1N. AntmanG
  • 17Y. AbuhaziraF
  • 24A. CohenD
  • 44Benny FeldmanD
  • 11D. HugiF
  • 26K. JaberD
  • 13N. NiddamM
  • 21A. TalpaM
Coach: R. Levy
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4-2-3-1
  • 19DanielG
  • 28I. VaierD
  • 26N. LjubisavljevićD
  • 32S. Ben-DavidD
  • 11S. SabahD
  • 8Talles CostaM
  • 63Alexandre SolaM
  • 7A. SagnaM
  • 21R. AbdullazadəM
  • 91B. ShaheenM
  • 9A. PopF
Substitutes
  • 1Nikola DjurkovicG
  • 12J. Al HalabiF
  • 6O. BenbenishtiD
  • 20O. DarwishD
  • 44S. EdriD
  • 39N. GabayF
  • 24N. MarkovitchM
  • 10A. ShirdatzkiM
  • 16M. SimantovD
Coach: S. Barda

Form going into Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Maccabi Netanya

Ligat Ha'al

  • W3-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva10 October 2026

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ligat Ha'al

  • L1-3Hapoel Tel Aviv10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Maccabi Netanya10442168+816
11Ironi Kiryat Shmona10217917-87

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maccabi Netanya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

  • 29 April 2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 7 February 2026Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al
  • 2 November 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 16 August 2025Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 5 January 2025Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Maccabi NetanyaLigat Ha'al
  • 21 September 2024Maccabi Netanya 2–0 Ironi Kiryat ShmonaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Maccabi Netanya and Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Maccabi Netanya

GoalsAssists

  • Matheus Davó52
  • O. Bilu33

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Maccabi Netanya beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0. The model had made a win for Maccabi Netanya its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Davó (penalty) 74' for Maccabi Netanya. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maccabi Netanya a 10.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.4% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.4%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For Ironi Kiryat Shmona the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.4% going in: 31.8% after a win, 42.2% after a draw, 47.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.9%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Maccabi Netanya v Ironi Kiryat Shmona has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Maccabi Netanya's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Maccabi Netanya win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Ironi Kiryat Shmona win29%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.