17 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Macva vs OFK Beograd Super Liga prediction & result

Gradski Stadion Sabac, Shabac
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Macva 1-1 OFK Beograd.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Macva, 28% draw, 37% OFK Beograd — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

OFK Beograd at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Macva4%Draw92%OFK Beograd4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Dognimani Yacouba Silueassist: Tayrell·Wouter
21'
Strahinja Stojković
⚽L. Pejovićassist: Nikola Lainović
34'
45'
🔁Tayrell·Wouterout: J. Šljivić
45'
🔁Strahinja Stojkovićout: Uroš Stojanović
59'
Đ. Ranković
Nemanja Stevanović
67'
🔁mitar ergelasout: stefan colovic
67'
🔁Đorđe Đorđićout: Vasilije Đurić
68'
70'
🔁Đ. Rankovićout: Tjay De Barr
🔁Bosko Vrastanovicout: Kristijan Tojcic
81'
🔁Milan Vidakovout: Nikša Delibašić
87'
🔁Nikola Lainovićout: V. Ilić
87'
88'
Stefan Despotovski
Kristijan Tojcic
89'

Match stats — Macva vs OFK Beograd

48%Possession52%
12Shots14
4On target4
7Corners2
1.16xG1.17

Goals against chances

Macva1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth
OFK Beograd1 from 1.17 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Macva 4-2-3-1
  • 89V. JovanovićG
  • 17N. LainovićD
  • 19I. RistivojevićD
  • 15S. SladojevićD
  • 44N. StevanovićD
  • 34Danilo KneževićM
  • 8B. VraštanovićM
  • 10M. ErgelašM
  • 30Đorđe ĐorđićM
  • 27L. PejovićM
  • 9M. VidakovF
Substitutes
  • 50B. MatićF
  • 4V. IlicD
  • 26U. DrezgićD
  • 99N. DelibasicF
  • 33U. BlagojevićD
  • 35Issa KoneD
  • 12K. RakonicG
  • 5Darko TerzićM
  • 22K. TojčićD
Coach: N. Glušica
OFK Beograd 4-4-2
  • 31Vuk DraškićG
  • 47S. StojkovićD
  • 4A. PavlovicD
  • 15N. MarašD
  • 2S. DespotovskiD
  • 19D. RankovicM
  • 14M. MomčilovićM
  • 6S. PeñaM
  • 7T. WouterM
  • 42Y. SilueF
  • 9Ethan HoardF
Substitutes
  • 17M. BešićM
  • 11T. De BarrF
  • 26M. FallD
  • 16L. IvanovicD
  • 24U. StojanovićD
  • 97N. StojišićG
  • 18H. TouréD
  • 91A. VasilićM
  • 45A. VukičevićD
Coach: Radoslav Batak

Form going into Macva vs OFK Beograd

Macva

Super Liga

  • D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026

OFK Beograd

Super Liga

  • D0-0away to Mladost Lucani12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Macva153481326-1313
12OFK Beograd152581527-1211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Macva vs OFK Beograd

  • 7 May 2024Macva 2–0 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
  • 13 April 2024Macva 1–1 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
  • 5 November 2023OFK Beograd 2–1 MacvaPrva Liga
  • 3 May 2017Macva 3–0 OFK BeogradPrva Liga
  • 15 October 2016OFK Beograd 0–1 MacvaPrva Liga

Leading scorers: Macva and OFK Beograd

Macva

GoalsAssists

  • M. Vidakov40

OFK Beograd

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Silue70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Macva and OFK Beograd drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for OFK Beograd at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dognimani Yacouba Silue 6' for OFK Beograd, L. Pejović 34' for Macva. On expected goals it finished 1.16–1.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Macva a 57.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 43.8% after a win, 60.2% after a draw, 68.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 60.2%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For OFK Beograd the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.9% going in: 18.9% after a win, 30.9% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.9%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Macva v OFK Beograd has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Macva's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Macva win35%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. OFK Beograd win37%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.