Dordrecht vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Dordrecht 0-0 NAC Breda.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Dordrecht, 27% draw, 44% NAC Breda — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
NAC Breda at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28T. CoremansG
- 22J. van AkenD
- 4J. PinasD
- 23L. WoudenbergD
- 3S. HenderikxD
- 5C. MpanzuD
- 2A. LechkarM
- 18Robin van AstenM
- 6L. RiccioM
- 10A. OuarghiM
- 9J. de BieF
- 27Ilias AzaouaghF
- 29Siginho GerardoF
- 44B. HardleyD
- 13Dean HogervorstG
- 1Finn OldenstamG
- 17Rocharnio LenzM
- 15Y. M'BembaD
- 16L. RománF
- 11N. RossiM
- 1M. VerripsG
- 2B. LucassenD
- 4L. GreimlD
- 22R. HillenD
- 12J. Van den BerghD
- 6M. BalardM
- 10M. NassohM
- 14K. SowahM
- 78J. Van HeckeF
- 9M. SoumanoF
- 28C. BrymF
- 17M. BouchouariD
- 35M. BrouwersD
- 5J. CandelariaD
- 55B. GhalidiF
- 19P. GladonF
- 33E. IkpiaF
- 23R. KortsmitG
- 31K. LamprouG
- 34I. NazihM
Form going into Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie
- L2-3away to Jong Utrecht2 November 2026
- L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026
NAC Breda
Eerste Divisie
- W2-0away to Jong PSV U212 November 2026
- D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
- W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Dordrecht | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 12 |
| 4 | NAC Breda | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
- 12 April 2024NAC Breda 1–4 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 11 August 2023Dordrecht 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 24 February 2023NAC Breda 3–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 22 October 2022Dordrecht 0–3 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 22 April 2022NAC Breda 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 5 November 2021Dordrecht 2–1 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Dordrecht and NAC Breda
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dordrecht and NAC Breda drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for NAC Breda at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Lucas Woudenberg (Dordrecht) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.36–1.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dordrecht a 59.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 52.0% after a win, 59.2% after a draw, 65.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.2%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For NAC Breda the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 85.3% going in: 88.8% after a win, 84.2% after a draw, 81.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 84.2%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dordrecht v NAC Breda has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is Dordrecht's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Dordrecht win29%▼ −4
- Draw27%=
- NAC Breda win44%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.