Dundee United vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Dundee United 1-1 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dundee United, 26% draw, 30% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dundee United at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundee United vs Motherwell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 19K. CiubotaruD
- 16L. CameronM
- 10D. TaitM
- 14Zidane IqbalM
- 21J. RandallF
- 9Z. SapsfordF
- 77D. BennieF
- 15L. RoseF
- 26Abdoulaye YoroM
- 30J. AmissahG
- 8Panutche CamaráM
- 6R. GrahamD
- 4I. IovuD
- 7M. MerghemF
- 93I. MetsokoF
- 22D. NaamoD
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 71J. HodgeM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
- 19I. SaidM
- 13J. KangaM
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 14C. HendryF
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
- 63D. LevittM
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 6J. McGheeD
- 16P. McGinnD
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
Form going into Dundee United vs Motherwell
Dundee United
Premiership
- D2-2away to Celtic28 October 2026
- W3-2Aberdeen24 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone17 October 2026
- W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026
Motherwell
Premiership
- W1-0St Mirren31 October 2026
- D2-2away to St Johnstone28 October 2026
- L0-2Heart of Midlothian25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026
What these results say
- Dundee United went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Dundee United scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dundee United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Motherwell failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Motherwell scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Motherwell
- 2 September 2026Motherwell 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 28 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 13 December 2025Dundee United 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 29 October 2025Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 22 February 2025Dundee United 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 14 December 2024Motherwell 4–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee United and Motherwell
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall33
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee United and Motherwell drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dundee United at 44% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Lukas Fadinger (penalty) 9' for Motherwell, Jesse Randall 41' for Dundee United. On expected goals it finished 1.95–1.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dundee United these chances to finish in the top six: 65.2% after a win, 56.7% after a draw, 51.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 56.7%.
For Motherwell the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.4% going in: 20.9% after a win, 29.0% after a draw, 33.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 29.0%.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dundee United v Motherwell has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Dundee United's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Dundee United win44%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Motherwell win30%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.