St Mirren vs Rangers Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 0-2 Rangers.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% St Mirren, 24% draw, 58% Rangers — fair odds of 5.56, 4.17 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rangers at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs Rangers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 22M. FraserD
- 13A. GogićD
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 47C. RamsayM
- 88K. PhillipsM
- 30F. TaylorM
- 3D. JohnM
- 10SamuF
- 20J. YoungF
- 19Ismeal KabiaF
- 32L. DouglasF
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 2J. RichardsonD
- 4L. DonnellyM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 16L. ThomasM
- 35Grant TamoseviciusG
- 23C. MochrieM
- 1I. PandurG
- 21D. SterlingD
- 24O. MakhanyaD
- 37E. FernandezD
- 29J. PenriceD
- 26B. BouananiM
- 6D. NeilM
- 43N. RaskinM
- 10Minsu KimM
- 20R. NaderiF
- 19K. KelsyF
- 42T. ChukwuaniM
- 52Findlay CurtisF
- 22V. DragojevićM
- 23D. GassamaF
- 4B. GodfreyD
- 31L. KellyG
- 28B. MiovskiF
- 18K. NedeljkovićD
- 25T. RommensD
Form going into St Mirren vs Rangers
St Mirren
Premiership
- L0-1away to Motherwell31 October 2026
- D1-1Hibernian28 October 2026
- W2-1Dundee24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026
Rangers
Premiership
- D2-2away to Heart of Midlothian28 October 2026
- W4-0St Johnstone24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dundee17 October 2026
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
What these results say
- St Mirren conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- St Mirren failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- St Mirren scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rangers went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Rangers had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Rangers
- 9 September 2026Rangers 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 16 August 2026Rangers 5–1 St MirrenLeague Cup
- 15 March 2026St Mirren 0–1 RangersPremiership
- 30 December 2025Rangers 2–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 24 August 2025St Mirren 1–1 RangersPremiership
- 26 April 2025St Mirren 2–2 RangersPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Rangers
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi63
- K. Kelsy40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rangers won 2–0 at St Mirren. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Rangers at 58%. The goals: Ryan Naderi (penalty) 18' for Rangers, Dan Neil 61' for Rangers. On expected goals it finished 1.11–3.35.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Mirren these chances to finish in the bottom three: 48.1% after a win, 54.9% after a draw, 59.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 59.1%.
For Rangers the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 39.7% going in: 42.5% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 30.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.