7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

St Johnstone vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

McDiarmid Park, Perth
Full time2 – 1

Final score: St Johnstone 2-1 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% St Johnstone, 27% draw, 34% Dundee — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

St Johnstone at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Johnstone96%Draw4%Dundee0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Josh Campbellassist: Enes Alic
5'
🔁Božo Mikulićout: Daniel Finlayson
14'
45'
🔁Bradley·Finkout: Joe Westley
45'
🔁Callum Jonesout: Ryan Finnigan
45'
🔁Joseph Bevanout: Zan Besir
47'
⚽Joe Westley
Taylor Steven
56'
🔁Danny schmidtout: Josh Fowler
59'
🔁Taylor Stevenout: Sam Stanton
60'
60'
Drey Wright
69'
Ethan Hamilton
72'
🔁Alan Forrestout: Charlie Reilly
⚽Kai Fotheringham
72'
🔁Kai Fotheringhamout: Macaulay Tait
80'
87'
🔁Drey Wrightout: Brad Halliday
88'
Brad Halliday

Match stats — St Johnstone vs Dundee

57%Possession44%
17Shots8
4On target3
4Corners5
1.62xG0.64

Goals against chances

St Johnstone2 from 1.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dundee1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

St Johnstone 3-4-3
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 6B. MikulićD
  • 2E. AlıçD
  • 33L. SmithM
  • 32J. CampbellM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 30J. CotterillM
  • 7T. StevenF
  • 22D. SchmidtF
  • 18K. FotheringhamF
Substitutes
  • 23L. ChalmersM
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 9J. FowlerF
  • 31C. HepburnG
  • 99R. PatonF
  • 11S. StantonM
  • 25M. TaitM
  • 26M. ToddM
Coach: S. Valakari
Dundee 4-4-2
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. BevanD
  • 12I. SamuelsD
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 28C. JonesM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 14A. ForrestM
  • 11A. HayF
  • 21B. FinkF
Substitutes
  • 26J. WrightD
  • 30H. SharpG
  • 18C. ReillyF
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 19J. WestleyF
  • 77Alfie HarrisonM
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 17Ž. BeširM
Coach: S. Pressley

Form going into St Johnstone vs Dundee

St Johnstone

Premiership

  • D2-2away to Kilmarnock31 October 2026
  • D2-2Motherwell28 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Rangers24 October 2026
  • D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026

Dundee

Premiership

  • W3-1Kilmarnock28 October 2026
  • L1-2away to St Mirren24 October 2026
  • D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026

What these results say

  • St Johnstone did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • St Johnstone scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dundee scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dundee conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Dundee had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7St Johnstone134541720-317
5Dundee125251815+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Dundee

  • 2 September 2026Dundee 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 18 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 DundeePremiership
  • 1 March 2025Dundee 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 5 January 2025St Johnstone 1–3 DundeePremiership
  • 26 October 2024Dundee 1–2 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 30 March 2024St Johnstone 1–2 DundeePremiership

Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Dundee

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fowler61

Dundee

GoalsAssists

  • B. Fink40
  • J. Westley40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Johnstone beat Dundee 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for St Johnstone at 39%. The goals: Josh Campbell 5' for St Johnstone, Joe Westley 47' for Dundee, Kai Fotheringham 72' for St Johnstone. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Johnstone these chances to finish in the bottom three: 25.0% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 25.0%.

For Dundee the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 63.6% going in: 72.6% after a win, 62.3% after a draw, 58.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.1%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on St Johnstone v Dundee has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Dundee's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. St Johnstone win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Dundee win34%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.