17 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result

WerkTalent Stadion, Den Haag
Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
Full time2 – 1

Final score: ADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.

Before kick-off the model made it 13% ADO Den Haag, 17% draw, 70% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 7.69, 5.88 and 1.43.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PSV Eindhoven at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ADO Den Haag4%Draw90%PSV Eindhoven6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Sven Mijnansassist: Guus Til
38'
Sven Mijnans
40'
🔁Guus Tilout: Mikkel Bro Hansen
Sekou Sylla
42'
43'
Sven Mijnans
🔁Jan Zamburekout: Matěj Šín
45'
🔁Sekou Syllaout: Othniël Raterink
45'
45'
🔁Dennis Manout: Ryan Flamingo
🔁Lasse Wilhelmout: Jalen Hawkins
45'
⚽Juho Kiloassist: Yannick Fereira Eduardo
55'
58'
🔁Ayoni Santosout: Amir Bouhamdi
🔁Jesse Balout: Daryl van Mieghem
66'
Othniël Raterink
69'
69'
🔁Mauro Júniorout: Shuryjano Cornecion
🔁Jonas Jensen-Abbewout: Alejandro Pozo
70'
Pascal Mulder
73'
⚽Matěj Šínassist: Evan Rottier
90+3'

Match stats — ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

53%Possession47%
16Shots15
5On target4
3Corners2
1.43xG1.07

Goals against chances

ADO Den Haag2 from 1.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
PSV Eindhoven1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

ADO Den Haag 5-3-2
  • 1K. NikiémaG
  • 5J. Jensen-AbbewD
  • 22L. WilhelmD
  • 3P. MulderD
  • 4M. WaemD
  • 18S. SyllaD
  • 8J. ŽambůrekM
  • 25J. KiloM
  • 11E. RottierM
  • 46Y. EduardoF
  • 9J. BalF
Substitutes
  • 16Finn de BruinM
  • 7D. van MieghemF
  • 10Illaijh de RuijterD
  • 17J. HawkinsM
  • 14M. JiménezM
  • 20Caleb KramerG
  • 21C. PeupionF
  • 24Alejandro PozoM
  • 2O. RaterinkD
Coach: R. Peter
PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 18F. KostićD
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 17Mauro JúniorM
  • 27D. ManM
  • 20G. TilM
  • 35A. SantosM
  • 21S. MijnansF
Substitutes
  • 51T. SmolenaarsG
  • 5I. PerišićF
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 42S. CornecionM
  • 23M. HansenF
  • 37A. BouhamdiF
Coach: P. Bosz

Form going into ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie

  • D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026

PSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie

  • W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17ADO Den Haag122371625-99
1PSV Eindhoven128224015+2526

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven

  • 2 March 2023PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagKNVB Beker
  • 13 February 2021ADO Den Haag 2–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 1 November 2020PSV Eindhoven 4–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 15 February 2020ADO Den Haag 0–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 11 August 2019PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
  • 21 April 2019PSV Eindhoven 3–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie

The full ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven record →

Leading scorers: ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven

ADO Den Haag

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

PSV Eindhoven

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mijnans92
  • G. Til71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

ADO Den Haag beat PSV Eindhoven 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for PSV Eindhoven at 70% and given a win for ADO Den Haag 13%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 8 matches like this one. The goals: Sven Mijnans 21' for PSV Eindhoven, Juho Kilo 55' for ADO Den Haag, Matěj Šín 90+3' for ADO Den Haag. Sent off: Sven Mijnans (PSV Eindhoven) 43'. On expected goals it finished 1.43–1.07.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ADO Den Haag a 46.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 36.5% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 48.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.5%, 10 points lower than before the match.

For PSV Eindhoven the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 47.3% going in: 49.9% after a win, 41.2% after a draw, 32.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.5%, 14.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 17% / 21% / 62% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 13% / 17% / 70%: the biggest move is PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. ADO Den Haag win13%▼ −4
  2. Draw17%▼ −4
  3. PSV Eindhoven win70%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.