17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Sparta Rotterdam, 23% draw, 21% Willem II — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sparta Rotterdam at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sparta Rotterdam97%Draw3%Willem II0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽Tonny Vilhena
⚽Jens Toornstra
39'
41'
Finn Stam
⚽Lushendry Martes
50'
⚽Milan Zonneveldassist: Jens Toornstra
57'
Rogier Meijer
59'
66'
🔁Anass Zarroukout: Thomas Verheydt
66'
🔁Tonny Vilhenaout: Mats Lemmens
68'
⚽Uriël van Aalstassist: Vito van Crooy
70'
Vito van Crooy
Lushendry Martes
70'
🔁Jens Toornstraout: Alwande Benedict Roaldsøy
74'
75'
Thomas Verheydt
Alwande Benedict Roaldsøy
78'
81'
🔁Uriël van Aalstout: Jari Schuurman
81'
🔁Jaden Sloryout: Chido Obi
🔁Cedric Hatenboerout: Teo Quintero León
83'
🔁Robin van Cruijsenout: Mitchell Van Bergen
83'
Milan Zonneveld
85'
Bas Kuipers
88'
88'
🔁Maxim Dekkerout: Eser Gürbüz
90+3'
Chido Obi

Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

49%Possession51%
22Shots13
8On target4
3Corners4
3.46xG1.24

Goals against chances

Sparta Rotterdam3 from 3.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Willem II2 from 1.24 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam 5-4-1
  • 1M. BrouwerG
  • 2L. MartesD
  • 3M. YoungD
  • 6N. VerschurenD
  • 4B. Martins IndiD
  • 5B. KuipersD
  • 7Robin van CruijsenM
  • 8J. ToornstraM
  • 10Cedric HatenboerM
  • 11I. BabadiM
  • 9M. ZonneveldF
Substitutes
  • 16J. BaasM
  • 20F. BednarekG
  • 22Joel IdehoF
  • 19Andrej KostićF
  • 30P. KuiperG
  • 14Teo QuinteroD
  • 12B. ReithD
  • 18A. RoaldsøyM
  • 21C. TerhoF
Coach: R. Meijer
Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 18Anass ZarroukM
  • 52T. VilhenaM
  • 7J. SloryM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 32V. van CrooijM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 2A. CiranniD
  • 28T. VerheydtF
  • 22Per van LoonM
  • 10J. SchuurmanM
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 14Jens MathijsenD
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 50E. GürbüzF
  • 15A. Et-TaïbiD
Coach: J. Stegeman

Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

Sparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie

  • D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026

Willem II

Eredivisie

  • L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sparta Rotterdam123362129-812
18Willem II120391140-293

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II

  • 18 December 2025Willem II 1–5 Sparta RotterdamKNVB Beker
  • 26 July 2025Willem II 3–1 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 March 2025Sparta Rotterdam 4–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 31 August 2024Willem II 1–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
  • 27 July 2024Willem II 2–4 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 July 2023Willem II 0–3 Sparta RotterdamFriendlies Clubs

The full Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II record →

Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II

Sparta Rotterdam

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zonneveld72

Willem II

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sparta Rotterdam beat Willem II 3–2. The model had made a win for Sparta Rotterdam its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tonny Vilhena 17' for Willem II, Jens Toornstra 39' for Sparta Rotterdam, Lushendry Martes 50' for Sparta Rotterdam, Milan Zonneveld 57' for Sparta Rotterdam, Uriël van Aalst 68' for Willem II. On expected goals it finished 3.46–1.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sparta Rotterdam a 30.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.0% after a win, 32.3% after a draw, 38.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.0%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

For Willem II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 88.7% going in: 82.7% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 91.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.4%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 23% / 21%: the biggest move is Sparta Rotterdam's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Sparta Rotterdam win56%▲ +9
  2. Draw23%▼ −4
  3. Willem II win21%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.