16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Seacon - De Koel, Venlo
Full time4 – 4

Final score: VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% VVV Venlo, 24% draw, 22% Jong AZ — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VVV Venlo at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VVV Venlo97%Draw3%Jong AZ0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Jerolldino Bergraafassist: Hessel de Wit
22'
⚽rio robbemondassist: Jerolldino Bergraaf
Ismail Oulad M'Hand
31'
⚽L. Schmidt
33'
45'
🔁rio robbemondout: Jasper Hartog
⚽L. Schmidtassist: Thomas Janssen
49'
55'
⚽Jasper Hartogassist: Hessel de Wit
🔁Thomas Janssenout: Amir rais
60'
🔁Ismail Oulad M'Handout: Luis Gorlich
60'
🔁Philip Heiseout: Lars de Blok
60'
64'
🔁Hessel de Witout: Kevin toppenberg
64'
🔁Jerolldino Bergraafout: Mathijs Menu
⚽Andreas Verstraeten
66'
🔁L. Schmidtout: Mattheos Tsigkas
69'
⚽Eanna Clancyassist: Lars de Blok
70'
Raf Vullers
74'
74'
Jasper Hartog
78'
🔁Wassim bouzianeout: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
83'
🔁Julian Sijbrandsout: Bogdan Budko
Lars de Blok
90'
90'
Jesper Zwart
90+3'
⚽Jasper Hartogassist: Bogdan Budko
Eanna Clancy
90+4'
90+4'
Kevin toppenberg

Match stats — VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ

48%Possession52%
19Shots21
6On target6
7Corners5
2.41xG1.44

Goals against chances

VVV Venlo4 from 2.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Jong AZ4 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VVV Venlo 5-4-1
  • 13Y. SchoonderwaldtG
  • 14Raf VullersD
  • 4É. ClancyD
  • 6A. VerstraetenD
  • 33G. BlancquartD
  • 16P. HeiseD
  • 19Thomas JanssenM
  • 8Ismail Oulad M'HandM
  • 11N. Ait MouhouM
  • 24M. OdrissM
  • 17L. SchmidtF
Substitutes
  • 31M. DavisD
  • 21L. GörlichD
  • 43D. HendrixF
  • 15Tijn JoostenD
  • 34A. RaisF
  • 22Zidane TaylanG
  • 9M. TsigkasF
  • 5Lars de BlokD
  • 35Yousri El AnbriM
Coach: Marinus Dijkhuizen
Jong AZ 4-2-3-1
  • 1I. KaG
  • 2J. ZwartD
  • 3A. NataliD
  • 4F. AndersenD
  • 5K. IngeD
  • 6Julian SijbrandsM
  • 8J. OeripM
  • 9Jerolldino BergraafM
  • 10H. de WitM
  • 11Wassim bouzianeM
  • 7R. RobbemondF
Substitutes
  • 20K. van OuytselD
  • 16K. ZeggenG
  • 19K. ToppenbergF
  • 23J. SchipperG
  • 15Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeD
  • 14Mathijs MenuD
  • 17J. HartogF
  • 12J. EsajasD
  • 18Bohdan BudkoM
Coach: Norbert Alblas

Form going into VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ

VVV Venlo

All competitions we cover

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Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3VVV Venlo159243824+1429
12Jong AZ145273331+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ

  • 16 January 2026VVV Venlo 1–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 7 November 2025Jong AZ 0–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 3 February 2025Jong AZ 3–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 8 November 2024VVV Venlo 0–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 10 July 2024VVV Venlo 2–1 Jong AZFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Jong AZ

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • É. Clancy51
  • L. Schmidt51

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VVV Venlo and Jong AZ drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for VVV Venlo at 54% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jerolldino Bergraaf 13' for Jong AZ, rio robbemond 22' for Jong AZ, L. Schmidt 33' for VVV Venlo, L. Schmidt 49' for VVV Venlo, Jasper Hartog 55' for Jong AZ, Andreas Verstraeten 66' for VVV Venlo, Eanna Clancy 70' for VVV Venlo, Jasper Hartog 90+3' for Jong AZ. On expected goals it finished 2.41–1.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave VVV Venlo a 60.6% chance to finish in the top four: 64.2% after a win, 58.9% after a draw, 52.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.9%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

For Jong AZ the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.7% going in: 7.5% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.3%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VVV Venlo v Jong AZ has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 24% / 22%: the biggest move is VVV Venlo's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. VVV Venlo win54%▲ +9
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Jong AZ win22%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.