17 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Telstar vs Feyenoord Eredivisie prediction & result

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
Referee: Jeroen Manschot
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Telstar 3-4 Feyenoord.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Telstar, 23% draw, 58% Feyenoord — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Feyenoord at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Telstar0%Draw3%Feyenoord97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra
21'
⚽Nacho Ferri
Gerald Alders
29'
⚽Tyrone Owusuassist: Noach Shenkman
30'
32'
⚽Sem Steijnassist: Givairo Read
⚽Patrick Brouwer
37'
41'
Charles Vanhoutte
57'
⚽Sem Steijn (pen)
65'
🔁Charles Vanhoutteout: Oussama Targhalline
65'
🔁Thijs Kraaijeveldout: Javi López
🔁Nökkvi Þeyr Þórissonout: Jelani Seedorf
65'
66'
Gjivai Zechiel
⚽Noach Shenkmanassist: Sem valk
69'
72'
Nacho Ferri
🔁Ar'jany Marthaout: Emirhan Demircan
77'
77'
🔁Sem Steijnout: Tobias van den Elshout
77'
🔁Gaoussou Kyassou Diarraout: Luciano Valente
🔁Noach Shenkmanout: Jeff Hardeveld
84'
🔁Gerald Aldersout: Harrie Kuster
84'
90+7'
Javi López

Match stats — Telstar vs Feyenoord

52%Possession48%
23Shots22
9On target11
6Corners8
1.43xG3.83

Goals against chances

Telstar3 from 1.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Feyenoord4 from 3.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Telstar 4-3-3
  • 1R. KoemanG
  • 3Gerald AldersD
  • 16S. ValkD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
  • 10T. OwusuM
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 42A. MarthaF
  • 11N. ÞórissonF
  • 27P. BrouwerF
Substitutes
  • 19F. RustF
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 21F. TurayF
  • 6Isaiah AhmedM
  • 5P. AningM
  • 18G. CaschiliD
  • 8E. DemircanF
  • 2J. HardeveldD
  • 14H. KusterM
Coach: H. Brugge
Feyenoord 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. ErnstG
  • 26G. ReadD
  • 4T. WatanabeD
  • 24T. KraaijeveldD
  • 35Mika MàrmolD
  • 8G. ZechiëlM
  • 34C. VanhoutteM
  • 23A. Hadj-MoussaM
  • 14S. SteijnM
  • 27G. DiarraM
  • 19Nacho FerriF
Substitutes
  • 6J. St. JusteD
  • 32T. WesselsD
  • 22T. van den ElshoutM
  • 10L. ValenteM
  • 28O. TarghallineM
  • 57J. SchakenF
  • 16Javi LópezD
  • 33F. KastenmeierG
  • 50Theodoros DelianidisM
Coach: G. van Bronckhorst

Form going into Telstar vs Feyenoord

Telstar

Eredivisie

  • D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026

Feyenoord

Eredivisie

  • W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Telstar122461825-710
2Feyenoord127413617+1925

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Telstar vs Feyenoord

  • 22 February 2026Feyenoord 2–1 TelstarEredivisie
  • 30 November 2025Telstar 1–2 FeyenoordEredivisie

Leading scorers: Telstar and Feyenoord

Telstar

GoalsAssists

  • T. Owusu51

Feyenoord

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hadj-Moussa72
  • Nacho Ferri63
  • G. Zechiël54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Feyenoord won 4–3 at Telstar. The model had made a win for Feyenoord its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra 1' for Feyenoord, Nacho Ferri 21' for Feyenoord, Tyrone Owusu 30' for Telstar, Sem Steijn 32' for Feyenoord, Patrick Brouwer 37' for Telstar, Sem Steijn (penalty) 57' for Feyenoord, Noach Shenkman 69' for Telstar. On expected goals it finished 1.43–3.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Telstar a 17.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.8% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 19.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.2%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Feyenoord the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 32.6% going in: 35.9% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.9%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Telstar v Feyenoord has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 23% / 27% / 50% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 19% / 23% / 58%: the biggest move is Feyenoord's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Telstar win19%▼ −4
  2. Draw23%▼ −4
  3. Feyenoord win58%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.