Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht Eerste Divisie prediction

GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond

Our model says: Helmond Sport 2–1 Dordrecht

The model makes it 47% Helmond Sport, 26% draw, 27% Dordrecht — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.72, Dordrecht 1.17.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Helmond Sport's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and Dordrecht's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Helmond Sport are 18th on 12 points from 15 games; Dordrecht are 19th on 12 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Helmond Sport have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Almere City FC.
  • Dordrecht are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Heracles.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dordrecht 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 February 2026, ended Dordrecht 3–0 Helmond Sport.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht

57%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Helmond Sport win Draw Dordrecht win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Helmond Sport first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Helmond Sport at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht

Helmond Sport

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-6away to Almere City FC14 November 2026
  • L2-3FC Volendam6 November 2026
  • W3-2FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
  • L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
  • L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026

Dordrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2Heracles14 November 2026
  • D0-0NAC Breda6 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Jong Utrecht2 November 2026
  • L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026

What these results say

  • Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Helmond Sport failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dordrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dordrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Helmond Sport153392637-1112
19Dordrecht153391936-1712

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Helmond Sport

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today

Win 49%
Draw 57%
Defeat 64%

Dordrecht

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 61% today

Win 52%
Draw 61%
Defeat 66%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht

  • 3 February 2026Dordrecht 3–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 24 October 2025Helmond Sport 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 8 February 2025Helmond Sport 0–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 10 November 2024Dordrecht 4–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 12 January 2024Dordrecht 2–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 23 October 2023Helmond Sport 1–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie

How the call on Helmond Sport v Dordrecht has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Helmond Sport's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Helmond Sport win47%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Dordrecht win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Helmond Sport Dordrecht
0.53 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
2.16 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.99
1.72 Model expected goals (this match) 1.17

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Helmond Sport the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.17 for Dordrecht. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.99 for Dordrecht.

How the model reaches 47% for Helmond Sport to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Helmond Sport to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Helmond Sport's ratings add 2 points and Dordrecht's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Helmond Sport's ratings46%+2
  4. Dordrecht's ratings47%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Helmond SportDordrecht
15Matches15
3W 3D 9LRecord3W 3D 9L
26 1.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.3 per game
37 2.5 per gameGoals conceded36 2.4 per game
0 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15
2 of 15Failed to score4 of 15
–Penalties scored1 of 1
38 2.5 per gameYellow cards33 2.2 per game
1Red cards3
4-4-2 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Helmond Sport at home · Dordrecht away

8Played7
3W 3D 2LRecord1W 2D 4L
16–14Goals for – against8–17
0 of 8Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Helmond Sport 15, Dordrecht 15.

Helmond Sport scored 363517
Dordrecht conceded 965439

Helmond Sport score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Dordrecht have let in 9 there.

Dordrecht scored 524312
Helmond Sport conceded 477647

Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Helmond Sport

  • at Emmen28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
  • vs Jong Utrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
  • at Vitesse11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
  • vs Jong AZ18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
  • at FC Volendam8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 18%

Dordrecht

  • vs Vitesse27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
  • at MVV4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
  • at De Graafschap11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
  • vs Den Bosch18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
  • at Jong Ajax11 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.