Regular Season - 15 · 15 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

MVV vs Vitesse Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Geusselt, Maastricht
Full time2 – 1

Final score: MVV 2-1 Vitesse.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% MVV, 30% draw, 39% Vitesse — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: MVV 1.05, Vitesse 1.22.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: MVV vs Vitesse

46%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-1 12%0-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

Vitesse at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into MVV vs Vitesse

MVV

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-0away to Emmen8 November 2026
  • L1-2VVV Venlo31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
  • L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026

Vitesse

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to Jong Ajax2 November 2026
  • L0-2Emmen23 October 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
  • D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026

What these results say

  • MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vitesse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vitesse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Vitesse had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8MVV146261929-1020
11Vitesse135351718-118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: MVV vs Vitesse

  • 17 April 2026Vitesse 0–0 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 21 October 2025MVV 3–2 VitesseEerste Divisie
  • 1 March 2025Vitesse 1–0 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 6 December 2024MVV 2–2 VitesseEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: MVV and Vitesse

MVV

GoalsAssists

  • O. Dumont51

Vitesse

GoalsAssists

  • N. Bannis103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MVV (8th, with Vitesse 11th), while our numbers lean to Vitesse. Vitesse rate 0.52 in attack and 1.43 in defence, MVV 0.45 and 1.95 (lower is better in defence), so Vitesse have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave MVV a 20.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.4% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.4%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For Vitesse the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 52.8% going in: 60.0% after a win, 50.2% after a draw, 45.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.5%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on MVV v Vitesse has moved

First published on 1 Nov at 29% / 30% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 30% / 39%: the biggest move is MVV's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. MVV win31%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Vitesse win39%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

MVV Vitesse
0.45 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.52
1.95 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43
1.05 Model expected goals (this match) 1.22

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vitesse the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for MVV against 1.22 for Vitesse. MVV's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.43 for Vitesse.

MVV carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.36 for Vitesse.

How the model reaches 39% for Vitesse to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitesse to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, MVV's ratings add 5 points and Vitesse's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. MVV's ratings33%+5
  5. Vitesse's ratings39%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.