Jong Utrecht
vs
Emmen
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong Utrecht 2–1 Emmen
The model makes it 45% Jong Utrecht, 25% draw, 30% Emmen — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.83, Emmen 1.42.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Jong Utrecht's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Emmen's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Jong Utrecht are bottom on 11 points from 14 games; Emmen are 6th on 25 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Den Bosch.
- Emmen are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to NAC Breda.
- Last 6 meetings: Emmen 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 March 2026, ended Emmen 1–0 Jong Utrecht.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen
Has the model earned this number?
Jong Utrecht at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Emmen
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to Den Bosch7 November 2026
- W3-2Dordrecht2 November 2026
- L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
- L1-2Roda19 October 2026
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
Emmen
Eerste Divisie
- L2-4away to NAC Breda14 November 2026
- L0-2MVV8 November 2026
- L0-5Den Bosch1 November 2026
- W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
- W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
What these results say
- Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht.
- Emmen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 11 |
| 6 | Emmen | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Jong Utrecht
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today
Emmen
Chance to finish in the top eight · 38% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen
- 2 March 2026Emmen 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 7 November 2025Jong Utrecht 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 14 March 2025Emmen 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 30 August 2024Jong Utrecht 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 15 March 2024Jong Utrecht 2–3 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 18 September 2023Emmen 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Emmen
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen60
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- J. Cooper113
- F. Quispel72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Emmen (6th, with Jong Utrecht 20th), while our numbers lean to Jong Utrecht. Jong Utrecht rate 0.56 in attack and 2.07 in defence, Emmen 0.57 and 2.01 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
How the call on Jong Utrecht v Emmen has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 42% / 25% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Jong Utrecht's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Jong Utrecht win45%▲ +3
- Draw25%=
- Emmen win30%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jong Utrecht the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jong Utrecht against 1.42 for Emmen. Jong Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.01 for Emmen.
How the model reaches 45% for Jong Utrecht to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jong Utrecht to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Jong Utrecht's ratings take away 1 point and Emmen's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Jong Utrecht's ratings45%−1
- Emmen's ratings45%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Jong Utrecht at home · Emmen away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Utrecht 14, Emmen 15.
Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Jong Utrecht
- at Jong PSV U2123 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs Almere City FC27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- at Helmond Sport4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- vs Waalwijk11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- at VVV Venlo19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
Emmen
- vs Helmond Sport28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
- at Heracles4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 10%
- vs Jong PSV U2111 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at FC Volendam18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Waalwijk9 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.