Heracles
vs
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Heracles 2–0 Jong PSV U21
The model makes it 69% Heracles, 20% draw, 11% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Heracles 2.44, Jong PSV U21 0.71.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Heracles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Heracles's rating is built from 15 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong PSV U21's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Heracles are top on 38 points from 15 games; Jong PSV U21 are 13th on 17 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Heracles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Dordrecht.
- Jong PSV U21 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VVV Venlo.
- Last 2 meetings: Heracles 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2023, ended Heracles 3–0 Jong PSV U21.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21
Has the model earned this number?
Heracles at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heracles vs Jong PSV U21
Heracles
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to Dordrecht14 November 2026
- W5-1Roda6 November 2026
- W2-0FC OSS2 November 2026
- D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
- W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to VVV Venlo6 November 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda2 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Eindhoven23 October 2026
- L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026
What these results say
- Heracles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Heracles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heracles won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong PSV U21 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 16 | +30 | 38 |
| 13 | Jong PSV U21 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Heracles
Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 92% today
Jong PSV U21
Chance to finish in the top eight · 20% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21
- 28 April 2023Heracles 3–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 22 August 2022Jong PSV U21 0–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Heracles and Jong PSV U21
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli143
- T. van Gilst112
Jong PSV U21
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heracles a 91.7% chance of the title and Jong PSV U21 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Heracles against 0.71 for Jong PSV U21. Heracles's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.63 for Jong PSV U21.
How the model reaches 69% for Heracles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Heracles's ratings add 14 points and Jong PSV U21's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Heracles's ratings58%+14
- Jong PSV U21's ratings69%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Heracles at home · Jong PSV U21 away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Heracles 15, Jong PSV U21 14.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Jong PSV U21 have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Heracles
- at Jong Ajax27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
- vs Emmen4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 74%
- vs FC Volendam11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 67%
- at De Graafschap18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%
- vs NAC Breda10 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 62%
Jong PSV U21
- vs Jong Utrecht23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at MVV27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- vs De Graafschap7 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- at Emmen11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs FC Eindhoven21 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.