Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC OSS vs Roda Eerste Divisie prediction

Frans Heesen Stadion, Oss

Our model says: FC OSS 1–0 Roda

The model makes it 37% FC OSS, 31% draw, 32% Roda — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: FC OSS 1.15, Roda 1.01.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC OSS's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and Roda's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC OSS are 14th on 17 points from 15 games; Roda are 5th on 28 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • FC OSS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to De Graafschap.
  • Roda have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to FC Volendam.
  • Last 6 meetings: Roda 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended Roda 1–2 FC OSS.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC OSS vs Roda

44%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC OSS win Draw Roda win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read FC OSS first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC OSS at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC OSS vs Roda

FC OSS

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to De Graafschap14 November 2026
  • D1-1Waalwijk6 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Heracles2 November 2026
  • D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026

Roda

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-1FC Volendam14 November 2026
  • L1-5away to Heracles6 November 2026
  • W2-1Jong AZ30 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC OSS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Roda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Roda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Roda had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14FC OSS155282224-217
5Roda158432118+328

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC OSS

Chance to finish in the top eight · 20% today

Win 26%
Draw 17%
Defeat 15%

Roda

Chance to finish in the top eight · 84% today

Win 89%
Draw 84%
Defeat 80%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Roda

  • 23 January 2026Roda 1–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025FC OSS 1–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 17 January 2025FC OSS 0–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 16 August 2024Roda 0–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 12 April 2024FC OSS 1–4 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 25 August 2023Roda 2–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: FC OSS and Roda

FC OSS

GoalsAssists

  • M. Hinoke60

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Roda (5th, with FC OSS 14th), while our numbers lean to FC OSS. FC OSS rate 0.52 in attack and 1.64 in defence, Roda 0.51 and 1.36 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC OSS a 0% chance of the title and Roda 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC OSS Roda
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.36
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 1.01

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC OSS the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC OSS against 1.01 for Roda. FC OSS's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.36 for Roda.

FC OSS carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.38 for Roda. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for FC OSS to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC OSS to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, FC OSS's ratings take away 1 point and Roda's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. FC OSS's ratings40%−1
  5. Roda's ratings37%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC OSSRoda
15Matches15
5W 2D 8LRecord8W 4D 3L
22 1.5 per gameGoals scored21 1.4 per game
24 1.6 per gameGoals conceded18 1.2 per game
1 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
4 of 15Failed to score3 of 15
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
26 1.7 per gameYellow cards19 1.3 per game
1Red cards0
4-3-3 13×Usual shape3-4-2-1 12×

FC OSS at home · Roda away

7Played8
4W 2D 1LRecord3W 2D 3L
17–9Goals for – against8–12
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC OSS 15, Roda 15.

FC OSS scored 363355
Roda conceded 313423

FC OSS score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Roda have let in 1 there.

Roda scored 414453
FC OSS conceded 235324

Roda score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); FC OSS have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

FC OSS

  • at Jong AZ27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
  • vs Almere City FC4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
  • vs FC Eindhoven11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
  • at MVV18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
  • vs Vitesse10 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 38%

Roda

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.