Den Bosch
vs
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Den Bosch 2–1 VVV Venlo
The model makes it 37% Den Bosch, 27% draw, 36% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Den Bosch 1.47, VVV Venlo 1.44.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Den Bosch and VVV Venlo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Den Bosch's rating is built from 55 Eerste Divisie matches and VVV Venlo's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Den Bosch are 10th on 19 points from 15 games; VVV Venlo are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Den Bosch have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Waalwijk.
- VVV Venlo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: Den Bosch 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 December 2025, ended Den Bosch 0–1 VVV Venlo.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo
Has the model earned this number?
Den Bosch at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo
Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie
- L0-4away to Waalwijk14 November 2026
- D1-1Jong Utrecht7 November 2026
- W5-0away to Emmen1 November 2026
- D2-2MVV23 October 2026
- W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
VVV Venlo
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2FC Eindhoven14 November 2026
- D1-1Jong PSV U216 November 2026
- W2-1away to MVV31 October 2026
- W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
- D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
What these results say
- Den Bosch scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Den Bosch conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Den Bosch had three goals or more.
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VVV Venlo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Den Bosch | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Den Bosch
Chance to finish in the top eight · 19% today
VVV Venlo
Chance to finish in the top eight · 90% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo
- 12 December 2025Den Bosch 0–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 30 September 2025VVV Venlo 0–1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 18 April 2025Den Bosch 0–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 25 October 2024VVV Venlo 1–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 26 April 2024VVV Venlo 2–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 20 October 2023Den Bosch 1–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Den Bosch and VVV Venlo
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach60
VVV Venlo
GoalsAssists
- É. Clancy51
- L. Schmidt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VVV Venlo (third, with Den Bosch tenth), while our numbers lean to Den Bosch. Den Bosch rate 0.54 in attack and 1.78 in defence, VVV Venlo 0.67 and 1.67 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Den Bosch a 0% chance of the title and VVV Venlo 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Den Bosch the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Den Bosch against 1.44 for VVV Venlo. Den Bosch's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.67 for VVV Venlo.
How the model reaches 37% for Den Bosch to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Den Bosch to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Den Bosch's ratings take away 4 points and VVV Venlo's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Den Bosch's ratings41%−4
- VVV Venlo's ratings37%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Den Bosch at home · VVV Venlo away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Den Bosch 15, VVV Venlo 15.
VVV Venlo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Den Bosch have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Den Bosch
- at NAC Breda27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs Jong Ajax4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
- at Roda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- at Dordrecht18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs De Graafschap8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
VVV Venlo
- vs Waalwijk27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Vitesse4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- at Almere City FC11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Jong Utrecht19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 58%
- at Roda8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.