De Graafschap
vs
MVV
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: De Graafschap 1–0 MVV
The model makes it 51% De Graafschap, 27% draw, 22% MVV — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.71, MVV 0.96.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to De Graafschap: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. De Graafschap's rating is built from 54 Eerste Divisie matches and MVV's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- De Graafschap are 16th on 15 points from 14 games; MVV are 8th on 20 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC OSS.
- MVV have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Emmen.
- Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended MVV 3–3 De Graafschap.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: De Graafschap vs MVV
Has the model earned this number?
De Graafschap at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into De Graafschap vs MVV
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2FC OSS14 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Volendam30 October 2026
- D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
MVV
Eerste Divisie
- W2-0away to Emmen8 November 2026
- L1-2VVV Venlo31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
- L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
What these results say
- De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- De Graafschap conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for De Graafschap.
- MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | De Graafschap | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 15 |
| 8 | MVV | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
De Graafschap
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
MVV
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs MVV
- 27 February 2026MVV 3–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 22 August 2025De Graafschap 0–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 22 March 2025De Graafschap 0–0 MVVEerste Divisie
- 8 November 2024MVV 0–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 26 April 2024De Graafschap 3–0 MVVEerste Divisie
- 24 September 2023MVV 1–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: De Graafschap and MVV
De Graafschap
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MVV (8th, with De Graafschap 16th), while our numbers lean to De Graafschap. De Graafschap rate 0.54 in attack and 1.77 in defence, MVV 0.45 and 1.95 (lower is better in defence), so De Graafschap have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show.
How the call on De Graafschap v MVV has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is De Graafschap's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- De Graafschap win51%▼ −3
- Draw27%▲ +1
- MVV win22%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives De Graafschap the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for De Graafschap against 0.96 for MVV. De Graafschap's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.95 for MVV.
How the model reaches 51% for De Graafschap to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for De Graafschap to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, De Graafschap's ratings add 4 points and MVV's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- De Graafschap's ratings47%+4
- MVV's ratings51%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
De Graafschap at home · MVV away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: De Graafschap 14, MVV 14.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); De Graafschap have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
De Graafschap
- at Roda29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- at Jong PSV U217 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs Dordrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- vs Heracles18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
MVV
- vs Jong PSV U2127 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
- vs Dordrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Jong Ajax11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs FC OSS18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.