Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Almere City FC vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction

Yanmar Stadion, Almere

Our model says: Almere City FC 2–1 NAC Breda

The model makes it 51% Almere City FC, 26% draw, 23% NAC Breda — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Almere City FC 1.83, NAC Breda 1.07.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Almere City FC's rating is built from 59 Eerste Divisie matches and NAC Breda's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Almere City FC are 2nd on 31 points from 15 games; NAC Breda are 4th on 28 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Almere City FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Helmond Sport.
  • NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Emmen.
  • Last 6 meetings: NAC Breda 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2025, ended Almere City FC 1–1 NAC Breda.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda

56%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Almere City FC win Draw NAC Breda win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–010%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–06%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Almere City FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Almere City FC vs NAC Breda

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • W6-1Helmond Sport14 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Jong AZ6 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026

NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie

  • W4-2Emmen14 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Dordrecht6 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Jong PSV U212 November 2026
  • D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Almere City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Almere City FC had three goals or more.
  • NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • NAC Breda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131
4NAC Breda158432922+728

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Almere City FC

Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 5% today

Win 6%
Draw 4%
Defeat 3%

NAC Breda

Chance to finish in the top eight · 90% today

Win 94%
Draw 90%
Defeat 88%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda

  • 14 March 2025Almere City FC 1–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 30 November 2024NAC Breda 1–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
  • 7 May 2023Almere City FC 0–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 16 December 2022NAC Breda 0–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 16 April 2022Almere City FC 1–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 10 December 2021NAC Breda 1–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Almere City FC and NAC Breda

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 5.2% chance of the title and NAC Breda 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Almere City FC v NAC Breda has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Almere City FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Almere City FC win51%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. NAC Breda win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Almere City FC NAC Breda
0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
1.39 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.52
1.83 Model expected goals (this match) 1.07

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Almere City FC against 1.07 for NAC Breda. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.52 for NAC Breda.

Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.42 for NAC Breda. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 51% for Almere City FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Almere City FC's ratings add 4 points and NAC Breda's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Almere City FC's ratings48%+4
  4. NAC Breda's ratings51%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Almere City FCNAC Breda
15Matches15
10W 1D 4LRecord8W 4D 3L
36 2.4 per gameGoals scored29 1.9 per game
15 1.0 per gameGoals conceded22 1.5 per game
5 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
1 of 15Failed to score2 of 15
2 of 4Penalties scored1 of 1
18 1.2 per gameYellow cards27 1.8 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

Almere City FC at home · NAC Breda away

7Played8
5W 0D 2LRecord4W 3D 1L
16–6Goals for – against14–10
3 of 7Clean sheets3 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Almere City FC 15, NAC Breda 15.

Almere City FC scored 4533712
NAC Breda conceded 333544

Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); NAC Breda have let in 4 there.

NAC Breda scored 345367
Almere City FC conceded 220453

NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Almere City FC have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Almere City FC

NAC Breda

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.