24 October 2026, 07:30 UTC

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Super League prediction & result

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Zhengzhou
Referee: Hyun Jae Choi, South Korea
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Henan Jianye 3-4 Beijing Guoan.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Henan Jianye, 27% draw, 42% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Beijing Guoan at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Henan Jianye0%Draw4%Beijing Guoan96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bruno Nazarioassist: Gustavo
20'
Pedro Maranhao
26'
30'
Chi Zhongguo
⚽Gustavoassist: Zhong Yihao
34'
⚽Gustavo
42'
45'
Abdugheni Abduhamit
46'
🔁Chi Zhongguoout: Zhang Xizhe
46'
🔁Abdugheni Abduhamitout: U. Spajic
46'
🔁Yue Tze-Namout: Wang Gang
65'
⚽Zhang Xizhe
69'
⚽Deng Jiefu
70'
🔁Bai Yangout: Z. Jiang
73'
⚽Lin Liangmingassist: Zhang Xizhe
Shi Chenglong
78'
🔁Liu Jiahuiout: Zheng Dalun
79'
🔁Zhong Yihaoout: He Chao
80'
81'
⚽Zhang Yuningassist: Lin Liangming
🔁Liu Yixinout: Fan Xulin
88'
88'
🔁Serginhoout: Cheng Xi
90+1'
U. Spajic
Bruno Nazario
90+3'
🔁Bruno Nazarioout: Yin Congyao
90+12'

Match stats — Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan

41%Possession59%
15Shots12
7On target7
5Corners4

Line-ups

Henan Jianye 4-2-3-1
  • 33Chenglong ShiG
  • 4Yeljan ShinarD
  • 2Iago MaidanaD
  • 5Liu JiahuiD
  • 27Yixin LiuD
  • 3Oliver GerbigM
  • 6Shangyuan WangM
  • 8MaranhãoM
  • 10Bruno NazárioM
  • 7Yihao ZhongM
  • 9GustavoF
Substitutes
  • 29Dalun ZhengF
  • 21Chao HeM
  • 30Xulin FanM
  • 24Congyao YinF
  • 17Jinshuai WangG
  • 18Gouming WangG
  • 26Jiamin XuG
  • 28Changjie DuD
  • 16Kuo YangD
Beijing Guoan 3-4-2-1
  • 34Hou SenG
  • 24Abdugheni AbduhamitD
  • 5Guilherme RamosD
  • 26Yang BaiD
  • 21Tze-Nam YueM
  • 6Chi ZhongguoM
  • 8Aboubacar KonteM
  • 47Deng JiefuM
  • 11Lin LiangmingF
  • 7Sai Erjini'aoF
  • 9Zhang YuningF
Substitutes
  • 27Gang WangD
  • 25Uroš SpajićD
  • 10Zhang XizheM
  • 58Zicheng JiangF
  • 41Cheng XiM
  • 22Han JiaqiG
  • 30Shuangjie FanD
  • 43Xia XiaoyuM
  • 32Wang SizeM

Form going into Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan

Henan Jianye

Super League

  • L0-1Tianjin Teda16 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026

Beijing Guoan

Super League

  • W1-0Qingdao Youth Island18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Qingdao Jonoon9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Henan Jianye30810123846-828
3Beijing Guoan30151055836+2250

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan

  • 23 May 2026Beijing Guoan 1–2 Henan JianyeSuper League
  • 6 December 2025Beijing Guoan 3–0 Henan JianyeFA Cup
  • 12 September 2025Henan Jianye 2–0 Beijing GuoanSuper League
  • 25 April 2025Beijing Guoan 1–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
  • 2 November 2024Beijing Guoan 1–1 Henan JianyeSuper League
  • 15 June 2024Henan Jianye 2–1 Beijing GuoanSuper League

Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan

Henan Jianye

GoalsAssists

  • Gustavo156
  • Bruno Nazário106

Beijing Guoan

GoalsAssists

  • Zhang Yuning157
  • Fábio Abreu116

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Beijing Guoan won 4–3 at Henan Jianye. The model had made a win for Beijing Guoan its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Bruno Nazario 20' for Henan Jianye, Gustavo 34' for Henan Jianye, Gustavo 42' for Henan Jianye, Zhang Xizhe 65' for Beijing Guoan, Deng Jiefu 69' for Beijing Guoan, Lin Liangming 73' for Beijing Guoan, Zhang Yuning 81' for Beijing Guoan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Henan Jianye a 2.1% chance to finish in the bottom two: 0.0% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.