24 October 2026, 07:30 UTC

Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua Super League prediction & result

Shenzhen Stadium, Shenzhen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Sichuan Jiuniu, 23% draw, 46% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 3.23, 4.35 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shanghai Shenhua at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sichuan Jiuniu5%Draw89%Shanghai Shenhua6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
🔁Wu Xiout: Wang Haijian
45+1'
J. Teixeira
⚽Dai Wai-Tsunassist: A. Ademi
46'
54'
•J. Teixeira
64'
🔁Jiang Shenglongout: Yang Shuai
64'
⚽Yang Shuaiassist: Gao Tianyi
64'
🔁Xie Pengfeiout: Xu Haoyang
🔁H. Shenout: Yu Rui
76'
80'
W. Manafa
🔁Z. Xuanout: Li Long
83'
83'
🔁Yang Zexiangout: Wang Shilong
83'
🔁Jin Shunkaiout: Li Songyi
⚽Wesley Moraes (pen)
90+1'
🔁A. Ademiout: Yao Junsheng
90+2'
🔁Dai Wai-Tsunout: Li Ning
90+2'
D. Owusu-Sekyere
90+7'
Yu Rui
90+14'
90+16'
⚽Rafael Ratao (pen)assist: Rafael Ratao

Match stats — Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua

36%Possession64%
14Shots20
4On target4
1Corners4

Line-ups

Sichuan Jiuniu 4-2-3-1
  • 13Peng PengG
  • 16Miao TangD
  • 3Gabriel XavierD
  • 46Huanming ShenD
  • 20Zhijian XuanD
  • 36Eden KarzevM
  • 8Tim ChowM
  • 31Deabeas Owusu-SekyereM
  • 10Dai Wai TsunM
  • 11Albion AdemiM
  • 7Wesley MoraesF
Substitutes
  • 15Rui YuD
  • 14Li LongM
  • 17Li NingM
  • 6Junsheng YaoM
  • 1Jiabao JiG
  • 35Minzhe WeiG
  • 23Yiming YangD
  • 39Menghui YuM
  • 2Tian YifanD
Shanghai Shenhua 4-2-3-1
  • 1Qinghao XueG
  • 13Wilson ManafáD
  • 3Jin ShunkaiD
  • 4Shenglong JiangD
  • 16Zexiang YangD
  • 15Wu XiM
  • 17Tianyi GaoM
  • 19Luís AsuéM
  • 10João Carlos TeixeiraM
  • 30Xie PengfeiM
  • 9Rafael RatãoF
Substitutes
  • 33Haijian WangM
  • 26Shuai YangD
  • 21Haoyang XuM
  • 2Shilong WangD
  • 6Songyi LiD
  • 24Zhen MaG
  • 27Shinichi ChanD
  • 36Ming HuangD
  • 43Haoyu YangM

Form going into Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua

Sichuan Jiuniu

Super League

  • L1-3away to Dalian Zhixing17 October 2026
  • D2-2Henan Jianye9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026

Shanghai Shenhua

Super League

  • W3-1away to Wuhan Three Towns18 October 2026
  • W7-1Yunnan Yukun10 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

China Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Sichuan Jiuniu3096154153-1233
7Shanghai Shenhua30155106750+1740

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua

  • 24 May 2026Shanghai Shenhua 1–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
  • 31 October 2025Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
  • 14 June 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 3–1 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
  • 27 October 2024Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
  • 17 July 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–0 Shanghai ShenhuaFA Cup
  • 26 May 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 0–1 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League

Leading scorers: Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua

Sichuan Jiuniu

GoalsAssists

  • Wesley Moraes145

Shanghai Shenhua

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Ratão191

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shanghai Shenhua 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Shanghai Shenhua at 46% and given a win for Sichuan Jiuniu 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dai Wai-Tsun 46' for Sichuan Jiuniu, Yang Shuai 64' for Shanghai Shenhua, Wesley Moraes (penalty) 90+1' for Sichuan Jiuniu.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shanghai Shenhua a 4.9% chance to finish in the top four: 10.5% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 37% / 24% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 23% / 46%: the biggest move is Shanghai Shenhua's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Sichuan Jiuniu win31%▼ −6
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Shanghai Shenhua win46%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.