24 October 2026, 00:00 UTC

Sport Recife vs Criciuma Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Sport Recife 2-1 Criciuma.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Sport Recife, 29% draw, 29% Criciuma — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sport Recife at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sport Recife97%Draw3%Criciuma0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Clayson Henrique da Silva Vieiraout: Edson Lucas Pereira
45'
🔁Claudinhoout: Augusto Pucci De Freitas
45'
🔁Diego·Hernandezout: Fernando Sobral
58'
🔁Pedro Henrique Perottiout: Neto Pessoa
58'
59'
🔁Jhonata Robert Alves da Silvaout: Nicolas Godinho Johann
70'
🔁Rómulo Oteroout: Waguininho
70'
🔁César Martinsout: Bruno Alves
⚽Chrystian Amaral Barletta de Almeidaassist: Augusto Pucci De Freitas
76'
82'
🔁Rodrigo Fagundesout: Romarinho
82'
🔁Diego Gonçalvesout: Guilherme Teixeira Lobo
84'
Willean Bernardo
🔁Patrick de Paula Carreiroout: José Gabriel dos Santos Silva
87'
87'
Romarinho
90+2'
⚽Fellipe Mateusassist: Waguininho
90+9'
Guilherme Teixeira Lobo
⚽Chrystian Amaral Barletta de Almeida (pen)
90+10'

Match stats — Sport Recife vs Criciuma

46%Possession54%
15Shots25
8On target4
0Corners8
1.51xG1.56

Goals against chances

Sport Recife2 from 1.51 xGabout what the chances were worth
Criciuma1 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sport Recife 4-2-3-1
  • 26Thiago CoutoG
  • 27ClaudinhoD
  • 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
  • 28HabraãoD
  • 76RaíD
  • 7Patrick de PaulaM
  • 29Willian OliveiraM
  • 30Chrystian BarlettaM
  • 20D. HernándezM
  • 25ClaysonM
  • 9PerottiF
Substitutes
  • 8Juan AlanoF
  • 80K. AndradeF
  • 19Neto PessoaF
  • 75A. MaronF
  • 21BrennoG
  • 96EdsonD
  • 88Fernando SobralM
  • 68AugustoD
  • 6BielM
Coach: M. Soso
Criciuma 3-4-2-1
  • 32AirtonG
  • 37César MartinsD
  • 3RodrigoD
  • 4Luciano CastánD
  • 97Willean LepoM
  • 14RonaldM
  • 7Fellipe MateusM
  • 22Marcelo HermesM
  • 91R. OteroM
  • 10Jhonata RobertM
  • 77Diego GonçalvesF
Substitutes
  • 6MarcinhoD
  • 34Bruno AlvesD
  • 33YuriF
  • 9NicolasF
  • 5EduardoM
  • 70PedroG
  • 11RomarinhoF
  • 8Guilherme LoboM
  • 13WaguininhoF
Coach: Umberto Louzer

Form going into Sport Recife vs Criciuma

Sport Recife

Serie B

  • L0-2Fortaleza EC16 October 2026

Criciuma

Serie B

  • W1-0away to São Bernardo18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sport Recife381513105342+1158
5Criciuma38188123832+662

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs Criciuma

  • 4 July 2026Criciuma 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
  • 9 September 2023Sport Recife 3–3 CriciumaSerie B
  • 25 May 2023Criciuma 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
  • 3 August 2022Sport Recife 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
  • 23 April 2022Criciuma 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
  • 9 November 2019Sport Recife 1–0 CriciumaSerie B

Leading scorers: Sport Recife and Criciuma

Sport Recife

GoalsAssists

  • Perotti151
  • Chrystian Barletta144

Criciuma

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sport Recife beat Criciuma 2–1. The model had made a win for Sport Recife its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Chrystian Amaral Barletta de Almeida 76' for Sport Recife, Fellipe Mateus 90+2' for Criciuma, Chrystian Amaral Barletta de Almeida (penalty) 90+10' for Sport Recife. On expected goals it finished 1.51–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Criciuma a 11.2% chance to finish in the top two: 22.7% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.2%, 7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sport Recife v Criciuma has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Sport Recife's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Sport Recife win42%▼ −7
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Criciuma win29%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.