Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun Super League prediction & result
Final score: Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Yunnan Yukun.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Qingdao Youth Island, 25% draw, 31% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Qingdao Youth Island at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
Line-ups
- 16Hao LiG
- 19Yu DongD
- 15Peng WangD
- 2Bruno VianaD
- 22Gengrui WangD
- 5Samir MemisevicM
- 28Chengdong ZhangM
- 10Nelson LuzM
- 8Xiuwei ZhangM
- 11DavidsonM
- 9AzizF
- 33Zhicheng LiuD
- 31Xie ChujunM
- 26Shibo LiuG
- 4Elnizar LohmanD
- 20Longhai HeM
- 32Haifeng DingD
- 3Honglüe ZhaoD
- 30Yang ZhanpengM
- 18Barak BraunshtainM
- 23Zhifeng WangG
- 3Wang-Kit TsuiD
- 33Andrei BurcăD
- 2Ruibao HuD
- 21Zihao YangD
- 10Alexandru IonițăM
- 8Xin XuM
- 34Caio ViníciusM
- 39Bunyamin AbdusalamF
- 9CléberF
- 11Oscar Taty MarituF
- 22Liuyu DuanM
- 30John Hou SæterM
- 6Yuhao ZhaoM
- 36Ernanduo FeiF
- 13Shengjun QiuG
- 14Xinghao WangG
- 1Yaxiong BaoG
- 26Chenliang ZhangD
- 16Zhang XiangshuoD
Form going into Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island
Super League
- L0-1away to Beijing Guoan18 October 2026
- L0-4Dalian Zhixing11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Wuhan Three Towns5 September 2026
Yunnan Yukun
Super League
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long17 October 2026
- L1-7away to Shanghai Shenhua10 October 2026
- W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Qingdao Youth Island | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 39 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
- 24 May 2026Yunnan Yukun 2–3 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
- 2 November 2025Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
- 14 June 2025Qingdao Youth Island 0–0 Yunnan YukunSuper League
Leading scorers: Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu239
- Cléber145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Qingdao Youth Island at 44% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Yakubu 17' for Qingdao Youth Island, O. Taty Maritu 72' for Yunnan Yukun.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Qingdao Youth Island a 2.5% chance to finish in the top four: 4.9% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
For Yunnan Yukun the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.4% going in: 28.1% after a win, 4.8% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.8%, 5.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Super League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Qingdao Youth Island v Yunnan Yukun has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 25% / 31%: the biggest move is Qingdao Youth Island's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Qingdao Youth Island win44%▼ −2
- Draw25%=
- Yunnan Yukun win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.