29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Istra 1961 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Istra 1961, 28% draw, 35% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Istra 1961 at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Istra 19614%Draw93%Dinamo Zagreb3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
Luka Stojković
⚽H. Jaganjacassist: D. Ahmeti
14'
24'
⚽D. Beljo
⚽D. Ahmetiassist: E. Frederiksen
29'
46'
🔁S. Dominguezout: S. McKenna
Hamza Jaganjac
62'
62'
🔁L. Stojkovicout: K. Kravtsov
62'
🔁A. Hoxhaout: M. Orsic
62'
🔁M. Lisicaout: F. Topic
67'
Lukas Kačavenda
🔁V. Rozicout: N. Skafar Zuzic
70'
73'
🔁L. Kacavendaout: S. Prevljak
🔁D. Ahmetiout: R. Kumar
76'
🔁G. Albarracinout: A. Mauric
76'
84'
⚽S. Prevljakassist: D. Beljo
90+2'
Scott McKenna
🔁M. Nasraouiout: F. Taraba
90+2'
🔁E. Frederiksenout: I. Saranic
90+2'

Match stats — Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

29%Possession71%
4Shots20
3On target3
4Corners8
0.84xG2.06

Goals against chances

Istra 19612 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dinamo Zagreb2 from 2.06 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. KolicG
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 3M. NasraouiD
  • 16S. MiettinenD
  • 13N. SepicD
  • 88D. DoumbiaM
  • 25G. AlbarracinM
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 20D. AhmetiM
  • 7V. RozicM
  • 94H. JaganjacF
Substitutes
  • 40J. Paus-KunstG
  • 24F. TarabaD
  • 97A. KadusicD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 8A. MauricM
  • 34M. KablarM
  • 9IsaacF
  • 27D. CelijaF
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicF
Coach: Javi Cabello
Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 10L. StojkovicM
  • 21M. LisicaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaM
Substitutes
  • 1D. ZagoracG
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 20R. MudrazijaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 77N. NsokiM
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

Istra 1961

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to HNK Rijeka23 August 2026
  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
  • L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Viking26 August 2026
  • W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026
  • D2-2Viking18 August 2026
  • W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Kauno Žalgiris11 August 2026

What these results say

  • Istra 1961 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Istra 1961 had three goals or more.
  • Istra 1961 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
  • Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Istra 1961135442419+519
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 22 April 2026Istra 1961 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 14 February 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Istra 1961HNL
  • 9 November 2025Istra 1961 2–1 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 23 August 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Istra 1961HNL
  • 5 April 2025Istra 1961 3–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 25 January 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 Istra 1961HNL

Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb

Istra 1961

GoalsAssists

  • E. Frederiksen115
  • H. Jaganjac52
  • D. Ahmeti34

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Istra 1961 and Dinamo Zagreb drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Istra 1961 at 37% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: H. Jaganjac 14' for Istra 1961, D. Beljo 24' for Dinamo Zagreb, D. Ahmeti 29' for Istra 1961, S. Prevljak 84' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 0.84–2.06.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.