25 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Paykan vs Malavan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Full time1 – 1

Final score: Paykan 1-1 Malavan.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Paykan, 28% draw, 29% Malavan — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paykan at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paykan3%Draw93%Malavan4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
A. Afsordeh
E. Jamshidi
23'
⚽R. Shekariassist: A. Madadizadeh
30'
36'
⚽E. Shahriari
45+4'
F. Jafari
🔁R. Shekariout: M. Sayyar
49'
54'
🔁A. Karimiout: R. Marzban
54'
🔁J. Hosseinpourout: F. Moamelehgari
M. Sayyar
58'
68'
A. Ramezani
70'
🔁A. Ramezaniout: A. Nesaei
70'
🔁F. Jafariout: B. Barzay
70'
🔁H. Sadeghiout: M. Beheshti
🔁A. Dehghanout: M. Najafi
71'
🔁J. Asadiout: M. Mashayekh
71'
M. Mashayekh
80'
🔁M. Sayyarout: S. Ashouri
85'
🔁M. Najafiout: A. Fathi
86'
A. Fathi
90+5'

Line-ups

Paykan
  • 1H. Pourhamidi
  • 11F. Amiri
  • 6S. Mohebi
  • 18A. Madadizadeh
  • 2A. Gholami
  • 61J. Asadi
  • 66A. Dehghan
  • 72H. Shoushtari
  • 77E. Jamshidi
  • 10R. Shekari
  • 7H. Ahmadi
Substitutes
  • 8M. Najafi
  • S. Nariman
  • 88E. Hadian
  • 12A. Shojaei
  • 13A. Abbasi
  • 15M. Sayyar
  • 29M. Mashayekh
  • 47A. Radin
  • 55A. Fathi
Malavan
  • 98F. Tayebipour
  • 28A. Karimi
  • 5Z. Saadavi
  • 4A. Afsordeh
  • 81J. Hosseinpour
  • 7F. Jafari
  • 90H. Sadeghi
  • 20M. Papi
  • 19M. Beheshti
  • 27E. Shahriari
  • 99A. Ramezani
Substitutes
  • 72R. Marzban
  • 8F. Moamelehgari
  • 75A. Nesaei
  • 77B. Barzay
  • 11M. Sadeghi
Coach: Maziar Zare

Form going into Paykan vs Malavan

Paykan

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-2away to Fajr Sepasi19 October 2026
  • D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026

Malavan

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L1-2Foolad FC13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Aluminium Arak8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Paykan123541112-114
15Malavan123361218-610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paykan vs Malavan

  • 28 November 2025Paykan 1–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 13 March 2024Paykan 1–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 20 September 2023Malavan 2–0 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 January 2023Malavan 1–0 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 12 August 2022Paykan 1–0 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Paykan and Malavan drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Paykan at 43% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Shekari 30' for Paykan, E. Shahriari 36' for Malavan. Sent off: E. Jamshidi (Paykan) 23'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paykan a 12.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: under 1% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 30.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.7%.

For Malavan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 35.1% going in: 6.7% after a win, 34.5% after a draw, 53.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.5%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Paykan v Malavan has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Malavan's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Paykan win43%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Malavan win29%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.