HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 1-2 HNK Hajduk Split.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% HNK Gorica, 21% draw, 45% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 4.76 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71D. MatijasG
- 45S. PericD
- 32J. FilipovicD
- 34I. CvijanovicM
- 2F. BrautM
- 66J. FriganM
- 36A. KaveljD
- 25B. BogojevicM
- 4K. CustovicM
- 24D. PavicicM
- 9P. MijicF
- 30D. ZarkovG
- 1R. JosipovicG
- 28E. KozinaD
- 7O. BakicM
- 8J. PranjicM
- 14S. KucisM
- 67T. PrgometM
- 99M. GashiF
- 18B. KardumF
- 33T. SilicG
- 22M. AcapandieD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 21R. PukstasM
- 8N. SigurM
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 16A. SutaloM
- 11M. SegoF
- 23M. SoticekM
- 44D. StipicaG
- 1I. IvusicG
- 14R. RaciD
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 38L. HodakD
- 20A. del MoralM
- 26A. GuramM
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 3R. GabricD
Form going into HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Gorica
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Pafos30 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 16 August 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 12 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 31 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 24 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 10 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 11 May 2025HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Gorica
- B. Bogojević3 goals
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.