Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 3-0 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Istra 1961, 20% draw, 20% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 4R. KumarD
- 13N. SepicD
- 8A. MauricM
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 80I. SaranicM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 24F. TarabaD
- 97A. KadusicD
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 34M. KablarM
- 27D. CelijaF
- 11S. GoricanF
- 7V. RozicF
- 30K. SenticG
- 18F. KruseljD
- 99F. KutlesaD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 5I. Cvetko
- 88D. BosakM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 11J. MitrovicD
- 7M. DabroF
- 8L. BanovecF
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 32I. CovicG
- 33K. IsasegiD
- 20M. PetrovicD
- 13A. BilobrkD
- 23A. JonssonM
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 22A. Adeshina
- 16L. GeciM
- 27A. GrgicF
Form going into Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 15 August 2026Istra 1961 3–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 4 May 2026Istra 1961 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 27 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 November 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 12 September 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 28 April 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
NK Slaven Belupo
- I. Nestorovski3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.