15 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Opus Arena, Osijek
Full time1 – 0

Final score: NK Osijek 1-0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% NK Osijek, 20% draw, 14% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Osijek at 66% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Osijek6%Draw91%NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁M. Susakout: J. Vasilj
46'
🔁T. Kralevskiout: L. Belcar
🔁J. Jezicout: A. Jakupovic
64'
67'
🔁M. Suboticout: F. Fetai
🔁S. Mikolcicout: I. Dolcek
68'
69'
Tino Jukić
Arnel Jakupović
75'
Armando León
80'
80'
🔁M. Maricout: D. Thaqi
Ivano Kolarik
81'
85'
Marcel Lorber
90+5'
Marko Pajač
🔁I. Kolarikout: E. Hasic
90+2'
🔁D. Bukvicout: B. Bakti
90+2'
🔁A. Leonout: Balelo
90+2'
90+1'
🔁I. Katicout: N. Djurkovic
⚽A. Jakupovicassist: D. Bukvic
90'

Match stats — NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

66%Possession34%
27Shots12
4On target0
9Corners4
1.7xG0.92

Goals against chances

NK Osijek1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Osijek 4-1-4-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 26L. JelenicD
  • 49I. KolarikD
  • 22R. JurisicD
  • 23L. VrbancicM
  • 39D. BukvicM
  • 48J. JezicM
  • 8S. MikolcicM
  • 11N. OmerovicM
  • 79A. LeonF
Substitutes
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 33E. HasicD
  • 24L. PosavecD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 67B. BaktiM
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
  • 18N. FarkasM
  • 17A. JakupovicF
  • 7I. DolcekF
Coach: Federico Bessone Luna
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-4-2-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 5T. JukicD
  • 21T. KralevskiD
  • 4A. TriantafyllouD
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 8I. KaticM
  • 10M. SuboticM
  • 17M. PajacM
  • 7D. VukovicF
  • 11M. SusakF
  • 24M. MaricF
Substitutes
  • 32L. SavatovicG
  • 20K. CabrajicD
  • 27N. GodecD
  • 29J. VasiljM
  • 9L. BelcarM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 30D. ReicM
  • 26D. Morina
  • 16KaykeF
Coach: Nikica Jelavic

Form going into NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Osijek

  • W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2NK Osijek75021711+615
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7214913-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • 15 August 2026NK Osijek 1–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 25 April 2026NK Osijek 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 21 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 23 November 2025NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 31 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 9 May 2025NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: NK Osijek and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Osijek

  • A. León5 goals1 assists
  • N. Omerović5 goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • D. Vuković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.