16 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Varazdin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: NK Varazdin 2-0 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% NK Varazdin, 29% draw, 29% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Varazdin at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Varazdin99%Draw1%HNK Rijeka0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gregor Sikošek
11'
🔁R. Puncecout: N. Tepsic
17'
⚽I. Mamutassist: I. Tavares
20'
⚽I. Mamut (pen)
31'
46'
🔁T. Dantasout: I. Cubelic
46'
🔁A. Gojakout: J. Puljic
Aleksa Latković
51'
65'
Moreno Živković
67'
🔁G. Rukavinaout: A. Orec
67'
🔁M. Zivkovicout: Y. Kabadayi
🔁I. Mamutout: L. Skaricic
75'
🔁A. Latkovicout: M. Vuk
75'
76'
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: T. Fruk
🔁M. Marinaout: T. Duvnjak
84'
🔁I. Tavaresout: E. Uchegbu
84'

Match stats — NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

38%Possession62%
8Shots15
4On target3
2Corners9
1.75xG0.72

Goals against chances

NK Varazdin2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
HNK Rijeka0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilicG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 14R. PuncecD
  • 20G. SikosekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovicM
  • 22L. MamicM
  • 38I. TavaresM
  • 17I. MamutF
Substitutes
  • 1O. ZelenikaG
  • 4L. SkaricicD
  • 5S. LesjakD
  • 3E. DurakovicD
  • 16N. TepsicD
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
Coach: Nikola Safaric
HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoD
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 21J. PuljicF
Coach: Matjaz Kek

Form going into NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

NK Varazdin

  • W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
  • W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to FK Jablonec30 July 2026
  • W3-2FK Jablonec23 July 2026

HNK Rijeka

  • D1-1away to Ilves13 August 2026
  • W1-0Ilves6 August 2026
  • W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3NK Varazdin7421137+614
5HNK Rijeka6321107+311

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs HNK Rijeka

  • 16 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 22 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 14 February 2026HNK Rijeka 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 9 November 2025NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 24 August 2025HNK Rijeka 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 13 April 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and HNK Rijeka

NK Varazdin

  • I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
  • L. Mamić3 goals
  • A. Latković2 goals1 assists

HNK Rijeka

  • D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
  • T. Fruk2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.