31 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

SC Rudes, Zagreb
Referee: Ante Culina
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rudes 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Rudes, 19% draw, 66% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 6.67, 5.26 and 1.52.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rudes94%Draw6%Dinamo Zagreb0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Junior Fernandesassist: Jurica Poldrugac
30'
Junior Fernandes
43'
🔁Jurica Poldrugacout: Saad El Haddad
60'
🔁Vid Seitzout: Xavier Cabrita Fernandes
60'
67'
🔁Luka Stojkovicout: Luka Ivanušec
67'
🔁Dani Rodríguezout: Iker Almena Horcajo
67'
🔁Miha Zajcout: Smail Prevljak
72'
Iker Almena Horcajo
🔁Noa Skokoout: Luka Popovic
73'
🔁Junior Fernandesout: Cherno Saho
73'
75'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Lukas Kacavenda
83'
•Dion Drena Beljo
🔁Felipe Curcioout: Filip Taraba
87'
Marko Zebic
88'
Saad El Haddad
90+1'
90+7'
Dion Drena Beljo

Match stats — Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb

22%Possession78%
13Shots26
4On target3
7Corners9
1.09xG2.6

Goals against chances

Rudes1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dinamo Zagreb0 from 2.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rudes 3-4-2-1
  • 95L. RogićG
  • 42M. ZebićD
  • 5M. StolnikD
  • 29S. BralićD
  • 2B. UnušićM
  • 24I. ĐorićM
  • 37N. SkokoM
  • 27Felipe CurcioM
  • 10V. SeitzM
  • 11J. PoldrugačM
  • 78J. FernándesF
Substitutes
  • 4V. CeljakD
  • 88S. El HaddadM
  • 1Filip HoljevacG
  • 7L. IlečićF
  • 14T. KolegaF
  • 34K. LovrićF
  • 8Luka PopovicM
  • 19Cherno SahoF
  • 44F. TarabaD
Coach: A. Peternac
Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValinčićD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 7Dani RodríguezM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 23Iker AlmenaF
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 14S. PrevljakF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic

Form going into Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb

Rudes

HNL

  • W1-0away to NK Osijek25 October 2026
  • L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

HNL

  • W2-1HNK Rijeka27 October 2026
  • W5-1away to NK Slaven Belupo18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rudes135171627-1116
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rudes vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 14 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 RudesHNL
  • 26 May 2024Dinamo Zagreb 3–3 RudesHNL
  • 17 March 2024Rudes 0–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 9 December 2023Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
  • 24 September 2023Rudes 1–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 16 December 2020Rudes 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebCup

Leading scorers: Rudes and Dinamo Zagreb

Rudes

No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rudes beat Dinamo Zagreb 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Zagreb at 66% and given a win for Rudes 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goal: Junior Fernandes 30' for Rudes. Sent off: Iker Almena Horcajo (Dinamo Zagreb) 72'. On expected goals it finished 1.09–2.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rudes a 39.1% chance to finish in the bottom one: 28.4% after a win, 37.8% after a draw, 41.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.4%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.

For Dinamo Zagreb the question was the chance to win the league, 73.8% going in: 76.0% after a win, 68.9% after a draw, 65.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.5%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.