25 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Holstein-Stadion, Kiel
Referee: Timo Gerach
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Holstein Kiel 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Holstein Kiel, 28% draw, 34% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Holstein Kiel at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Holstein Kiel99%Draw1%Dynamo Dresden0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Simon Straudi
⚽Giorgi Kvilitaiaassist: Phil Harres
9'
Kasper Davidsen
37'
🔁Kasper Davidsenout: Ikem Ugoh
45'
🔁Giorgi Kvilitaiaout: Faride·Alidou
57'
David Zec
61'
Leon Parduzi
62'
63'
⚽Niklas Hauptmann (pen)
Jonas Meffert
64'
Adrian Kapralik
66'
72'
🔁Patrice Čovićout: Kaan Inanoglu
🔁Adrian Kapralikout: Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
73'
⚽Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
73'
84'
🔁Niklas Hauptmannout: Jakob Lemmer
84'
🔁Vincent Vermeijout: Nils Fröling
⚽Phil Harresassist: Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
85'
🔁Gyan de Regtout: Till Wiese
88'
🔁Phil Harresout: Mark Richter Montserrat
88'
90+3'
🔁Ben Bobzienout: Christoph Daferner

Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden

37%Possession63%
15Shots13
4On target4
5Corners10
1.47xG2.04

Goals against chances

Holstein Kiel3 from 1.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Dynamo Dresden0 from 2.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel 4-4-2
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 26D. ZecD
  • 40Leon ParduziD
  • 20A. KaprálikM
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 11G. de RegtM
  • 19P. HarresF
  • 9G. KvilitaiaF
Substitutes
  • 30T. TasdelenM
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 43T. WieseM
  • 41Lio RothenhagenG
  • 44Mark Richter MonserratF
  • 13I. NekićD
  • 17F. AlidouF
Coach: T. Walter
Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GrillG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 6N. RappD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 21T. RaschlM
  • 24P. ČovićM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 20B. BobzienM
  • 9V. VermeijF
Substitutes
  • 16N. FrölingF
  • 8L. HerrmannM
  • 11K. InanogluF
  • 10J. LemmerM
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
  • 34T. NeiningerD
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 33C. DafernerF
Coach: Thomas Stamm

Form going into Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden

Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026

Dynamo Dresden

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Holstein Kiel111551114-38
15Dynamo Dresden113261520-511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden

  • 17 May 2026Dynamo Dresden 2–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 20 December 2025Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 16 April 2022Dynamo Dresden 0–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 5 November 2021Holstein Kiel 2–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 18 June 2020Holstein Kiel 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 30 November 2019Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden

Holstein Kiel

GoalsAssists

  • P. Harres53

Dynamo Dresden

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Holstein Kiel beat Dynamo Dresden 3–0. The model had made a win for Holstein Kiel its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Giorgi Kvilitaia 9' for Holstein Kiel, Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen 73' for Holstein Kiel, Phil Harres 85' for Holstein Kiel. On expected goals it finished 1.47–2.04.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Holstein Kiel a 27.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 22.1% after a win, 27.2% after a draw, 31.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.1%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

For Dynamo Dresden the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 8.2% going in: 5.7% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.4%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 40% / 27% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Holstein Kiel's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Holstein Kiel win38%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Dynamo Dresden win34%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.