25 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Stadion an der Bremer Brücke, Osnabruck
Referee: Justin Joel Hasmann
Full time3 – 0

Final score: VfL Osnabrück 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% VfL Osnabrück, 25% draw, 35% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfL Osnabrück at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Osnabrück99%Draw1%SpVgg Greuther Fürth0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Patrick Kammerbauer
30'
⚽Daniel-Kofi Kyerehassist: Robin Meißner
37'
⚽Robin Meißnerassist: Daniel-Kofi Kyereh
39'
🔁Patrick Kammerbauerout: Konrad Faber
45'
56'
🔁Sacha Banseout: Faton Ademi
56'
🔁Shinta Karl Appelkampout: Omar Sillah
🔁Daniel-Kofi Kyerehout: Ismail Badjie
67'
67'
🔁Jordan Siebatcheuout: Dennis Srbeny
67'
🔁Jannik Dehmout: Mika Wallentowitz
⚽Ismail Badjie
75'
76'
🔁Ole Pohlmannout: Aaron Keller
🔁Leonhard Luis Munstout: Bernd Riesselmann
76'
🔁Jannik Müllerout: Theo Janotta
77'
🔁Bjarke Jacobsenout: Fridolin Wagner
88'

Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

42%Possession58%
14Shots13
9On target1
6Corners7
2.55xG0.65

Goals against chances

VfL Osnabrück3 from 2.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
SpVgg Greuther Fürth0 from 0.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
  • 32J. KrumreyG
  • 27R. FabinskiD
  • 24J. MüllerD
  • 25N. WiemannD
  • 31P. KammerbauerM
  • 8L. MünstM
  • 15B. JacobsenM
  • 42J. GómezM
  • 21A. BeckM
  • 7D. KyerehM
  • 11R. MeißnerF
Substitutes
  • 4J. Abu HannaD
  • 10I. BadjieM
  • 28K. FaberD
  • 18L. FlachM
  • 20T. JanottaD
  • 17L. RaimundF
  • 22B. RiesselmannF
  • 1N. SauterG
  • 26F. WagnerM
Coach: T. Schultz
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Florian HellsternG
  • 23J. DehmD
  • 22J. HeuerD
  • 34Hendry Aron BlankD
  • 27G. ItterD
  • 13P. WillM
  • 6S. BanséM
  • 30F. KlausM
  • 8S. AppelkampM
  • 10Ole PohlmannM
  • 9J. SiebatcheuF
Substitutes
  • 37F. AdemiM
  • 28D. ArifiM
  • 45Olgherto BalliuM
  • 11A. KellerM
  • 29K. KeresztesD
  • 39C. OrtagG
  • 42O. SillahF
  • 7D. SrbenyF
  • 21M. WallentowitzM
Coach: H. Vogel

Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

VfL Osnabrück

2. Bundesliga

  • L1-2away to Arminia Bielefeld18 October 2026
  • D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-0Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hertha BSC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14VfL Osnabrück113261418-411
10SpVgg Greuther Fürth113351319-612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • 7 April 2024VfL Osnabrück 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 27 October 2023SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4–0 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
  • 26 January 2021VfL Osnabrück 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 20 September 2020SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
  • 26 May 2020SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
  • 27 October 2019VfL Osnabrück 0–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth

VfL Osnabrück

GoalsAssists

  • R. Meißner41

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

GoalsAssists

  • F. Klaus71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfL Osnabrück beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–0. The model had made a win for VfL Osnabrück its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Daniel-Kofi Kyereh 37' for VfL Osnabrück, Robin Meißner 39' for VfL Osnabrück, Ismail Badjie 75' for VfL Osnabrück. On expected goals it finished 2.55–0.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Osnabrück a 18.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 13.7% after a win, 19.1% after a draw, 22.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.7%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

For SpVgg Greuther Fürth the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 8.3% going in: 6.3% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 9.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.6%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VfL Osnabrück v SpVgg Greuther Fürth has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is SpVgg Greuther Fürth's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. VfL Osnabrück win40%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. SpVgg Greuther Fürth win35%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.