AVS vs Tondela Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: AVS 2-1 Tondela.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% AVS, 29% draw, 29% Tondela — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AVS at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AVS vs Tondela
Line-ups
- 1Dani RebolloG
- 97Matheus PivôD
- 3L. RosićD
- 26Bernardo CondeD
- 12L. RivasD
- 70RoniM
- 88F. AlmeidaD
- 80Hiago SantosM
- 19Rafael GenuinoF
- 7Guilherme NeivaF
- 30Talles WanderF
- 25RaulG
- 4Davi SchuindtD
- 6Carlos PonckD
- 22Diogo BrasidoD
- 28André SousaD
- 78AndreyM
- 49P. PimentelM
- 8Jorge MeirelesF
- 9Rodrigo PinhoF
- 28CarlosG
- 15CarraçaD
- 4Christian MarquesD
- 6FarruD
- 12Zé RicardoD
- 8Hélder TavaresM
- 37SararáM
- 26A. van der HeideF
- 20Hugo FélixM
- 7CascavelM
- 19TómanéF
- 2BebetoM
- 77Tiago DiasD
- 9João LimaF
- 17G. NoveroF
- 14Xabi HuarteM
- 13S. SitholeM
- 10H. AddoF
- 22B. AlmeidaD
- 5João AfonsoD
Form going into AVS vs Tondela
AVS
Segunda Liga
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
Tondela
Segunda Liga
- W1-0Torreense10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AVS | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Tondela | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AVS vs Tondela
- 21 March 2026Tondela 0–0 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 2 November 2025AVS 2–2 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 19 May 2024AVS 0–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 14 January 2024Tondela 3–2 AVSSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: AVS and Tondela
AVS
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Tondela
GoalsAssists
- Cascavel10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AVS beat Tondela 2–1. The model had made a win for AVS its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Hiago Souza Lima Santos 5' for AVS, Jorge Meireles 86' for AVS, Bebeto (penalty) 90+4' for Tondela.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AVS a 10.0% chance to finish in the top three: 12.3% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.3%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Tondela the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 15.7% going in: 20.2% after a win, 15.5% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.