25 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Primeira Liga prediction & result

Lisbon
Referee: Miguel Bertolo Nogueira
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sporting CP 1-2 Academico Viseu.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Sporting CP, 20% draw, 15% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting CP0%Draw7%Academico Viseu93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Luis Silva
11'
Cihan Kahraman
24'
⚽João Guilhermeassist: Robinho
Issa Doumbia
41'
•Maximiliano Araujo
45+2'
45+6'
Nils Mortimer
🔁Luís Guilhermeout: Geny Catamo
58'
🔁Flávio Gonçalvesout: Fotis Ioannidis
58'
⚽Luis Suárezassist: Iván Fresneda
62'
63'
🔁Nils Mortimerout: Lorougnon Gohi
72'
🔁Cihan Kahramanout: Alejandro Mestanza
74'
⚽João Guilhermeassist: Soufiane Messeguem
🔁Iván Fresnedaout: Georgios Vagiannidis
85'
🔁Sergi Altimiraout: Silas Andersen
85'
🔁Nestory Irankundaout: Jesse Derry
85'
87'
🔁André Clóvisout: Mohamed Bouldini
87'
🔁João Guilhermeout: Alvaro Zamora
Maximiliano Araujo
88'
90+4'
Alejandro Mestanza

Match stats — Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu

71%Possession29%
28Shots9
4On target3
11Corners0
2.06xG0.86

Goals against chances

Sporting CP1 from 2.06 xGless than the chances were worth
Academico Viseu2 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 30KaiqueG
  • 22Iván FresnedaD
  • 55Ibrahima BaD
  • 25Gonçalo InácioD
  • 20M. AraújoD
  • 5Sergi AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 31Luis GuilhermeM
  • 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  • 19N. IrankundaM
  • 97L. SuárezF
Substitutes
  • 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
  • 10Geny CatamoM
  • 1Rui SilvaG
  • 28J. DerryF
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
  • 7F. IoannidisF
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
  • 4S. AndersenM
Coach: Rui Borges
Academico Viseu 4-1-4-1
  • 98EwertonG
  • 75RobinhoD
  • 41A. CorreiaD
  • 2N. MichelisD
  • 3Miguel BrauD
  • 7Luís SilvaM
  • 22Nils MortimerM
  • 14S. MesseguemM
  • 8C. KahramanM
  • 31João GuilhermeM
  • 33André ClóvisF
Substitutes
  • 47L. GohiF
  • 5Pedro BarcelosD
  • 57G. CostaD
  • 9M. BouldiniF
  • 6André CeitilM
  • 17ValeryD
  • 18C. FerreiraM
  • 45Alejandro MestanzaM
  • 44Rúben PereiraD
Coach: Bruno Pinheiro

Form going into Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu

Sporting CP

Primeira Liga

  • W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
  • D2-2Arouca19 September 2026

Academico Viseu

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Sporting CP117312411+1324
6Academico Viseu116231513+220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Academico Viseu

Sporting CP

GoalsAssists

  • L. Suárez91
  • Flávio Gonçalves31

Academico Viseu

GoalsAssists

  • André Clóvis51
  • S. Messeguem31
  • João Guilherme30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Academico Viseu won 2–1 at Sporting CP. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP at 65% and given a win for Academico Viseu 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: João Guilherme 24' for Academico Viseu, Luis Suárez 62' for Sporting CP, João Guilherme 74' for Academico Viseu. On expected goals it finished 2.06–0.86.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sporting CP a 42.4% chance to finish in the top two: 45.4% after a win, 37.0% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 10.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.