30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK Eliteserien prediction & result

Briskeby Arena, Hamar
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Ham-Kam, 30% draw, 29% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ham-Kam at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ham-Kam4%Draw93%Kristiansund BK3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁A. Poturout: M. Johnsgard
20'
46'
🔁T. Svendsenout: A. Ronning
49'
⚽S. Svendsenassist: A. Ronning
⚽B. Isufiassist: P. Metcalfe
51'
Blerton Isufi
60'
62'
⚽L. Alvheimassist: Z. Bytyqi
65'
🔁J. Kitolanoout: H. Haugen
🔁D. Moreiraout: H. Udahl
68'
🔁B. Isufiout: D. Al Saed
68'
🔁V. Jonssonout: A. Andresen
69'
69'
🔁Z. Bytyqiout: G. Christensen
70'
Syver Skundberg Skeide
⚽D. Al Saedassist: M. Johnsgard
73'
Luc Mares
76'
🔁F. Sjolstadout: H. Opsahl
80'
82'
🔁S. Skeideout: D. Tufekcic
•Henrik Udahl
90+1'

Match stats — Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

58%Possession42%
12Shots19
5On target5
9Corners4
0.71xG1.13

Goals against chances

Ham-Kam2 from 0.71 xGmore than the chances were worth
Kristiansund BK2 from 1.13 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ham-Kam 5-3-2
  • 12M. SandbergG
  • 26P. MetcalfeD
  • 22S. NilsenD
  • 23F. SjolstadD
  • 3E. Amundsen-DayD
  • 7V. JonssonD
  • 17A. PoturM
  • 14L. MaresM
  • 16A. TrondsenM
  • 18D. MoreiraF
  • 29B. IsufiF
Substitutes
  • 13S. OstraatG
  • 4H. OpsahlD
  • 5A. AndresenD
  • 10L. MettlerM
  • 8M. JohnsgardM
  • 6W. Osnes-RingenM
  • 28D. BenjaminF
  • 19H. UdahlF
  • 24D. Al SaedF
Coach: Thomas Myhre
Kristiansund BK 4-3-3
  • 1M. LansingG
  • 25J. KitolanoD
  • 4J. JuliussonD
  • 5D. UlvestadD
  • 6J. IsaksenD
  • 10H. BrusethM
  • 14S. SkeideM
  • 7S. SvendsenM
  • 23T. SvendsenF
  • 19L. AlvheimF
  • 11Z. BytyqiF
Substitutes
  • 12A. SaetherG
  • 22H. HaugenD
  • 17M. WilliamsenD
  • 2A. BorsetD
  • 3F. FlexD
  • 27A. RonningF
  • 24G. ChristensenF
  • 16D. TufekcicM
Coach: Amund Skiri

Form going into Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

Ham-Kam

  • L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
  • D1-1Aalesund9 August 2026

Kristiansund BK

  • L0-1away to Fredrikstad16 August 2026
  • W2-1Molde9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Ham-Kam206592741-1423
14Kristiansund BK2054112037-1719

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK

  • 30 August 2026Ham-Kam 2–2 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 3 May 2026Kristiansund BK 1–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 18 February 2026Kristiansund BK 2–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 October 2025Kristiansund BK 1–3 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 30 March 2025Ham-Kam 2–1 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 27 October 2024Ham-Kam 1–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien

Leading scorers: Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK

Ham-Kam

  • M. Alassane Niang6 goals

Kristiansund BK

  • L. Alvheim10 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.