23 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito
Referee: Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero, Ecuador
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Independiente del Valle 0-0 Universidad Catolica Quito.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Independiente del Valle, 22% draw, 23% Universidad Catolica Quito — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Independiente del Valle at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Independiente del Valle6%Draw90%Universidad Catolica Quito4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda
47'
Daniel Clavijo
Youri Ochoa
51'
62'
José Fajardo
🔁Youri Ochoaout: Hugo Quintana
63'
🔁Djorkaeff Reascosout: Carlos González
64'
72'
Jerónimo Cacciabue
🔁Steven Daniel Góngora Palaciosout: Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
76'
🔁Ronald Brionesout: Junior Sornoza
76'
•Juan Viacava
78'
82'
🔁Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Peredaout: Jimmy Evans
82'
🔁Jerónimo Cacciabueout: Facundo Martinez
🔁Matias Mijail Perelloout: Edwin Quintero
87'
90+3'
🔁Mauro Díazout: Andrés Rodríguez
90+3'
🔁Daniel Clavijoout: Luis Johan Moreno

Match stats — Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito

46%Possession54%
12Shots10
4On target1
8Corners3
0.82xG0.37

Goals against chances

Independiente del Valle0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Universidad Catolica Quito0 from 0.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. QuintanaG
  • 4J. EspinozaD
  • 14M. CarabajalD
  • 15G. CortézD
  • 8Y. OchoaD
  • 16R. BrionesM
  • 11M. PerellóM
  • 18Steven Daniel Góngora PalaciosM
  • 32J. MéndezM
  • 99D. ReascoM
  • 23Juan ViacavaF
Substitutes
  • 6J. AlcívarM
  • 9C. GonzálezF
  • 19L. LoorD
  • 31Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezF
  • 70M. PeraltaG
  • 28H. QuintanaM
  • 56E. QuinteroM
  • 13Daykol Alejandro Romero PadillaD
  • 5R. SchunkeD
Coach: Joaquín Papa
Universidad Catolica Quito 4-4-2
  • 12J. LaraG
  • 29G. AnangonóD
  • 33L. CangáD
  • 3Jose GarcíaD
  • 30E. MejíaD
  • 9A. LondoñoM
  • 8D. ClavijoM
  • 5J. CacciabueM
  • 32M. AlonsoM
  • 7J. FajardoF
  • 28M. DíazF
Substitutes
  • 26Foad EidF
  • 1Lucas Cueva GordilloG
  • 11J. EvansF
  • 10F. MartínezM
  • 37C. MedinaD
  • 15L. MorenoD
  • 24Darwin Carlos Nazareno ArroyoD
  • 18B. PalaciosF
  • 23Alex Andrés Rodríguez ReascosM
Coach: D. Martínez

Form going into Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito

Independiente del Valle

Liga Pro

  • L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
  • W2-1Aucas10 October 2026

Universidad Catolica Quito

Liga Pro

  • D1-1away to Barcelona SC18 October 2026
  • L0-1Macara11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Independiente del Valle3527358137+4484
3Universidad Catolica Quito361412105635+2154

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito

  • 29 August 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 13 May 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 0–3 Independiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador
  • 1 May 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 2–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
  • 14 December 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 0–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
  • 8 November 2025Independiente del Valle 0–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
  • 13 October 2025Independiente del Valle 1–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoCopa Ecuador

Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica Quito

Independiente del Valle

GoalsAssists

  • C. González111
  • D. Reasco94
  • M. Perelló84

Universidad Catolica Quito

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fajardo133
  • M. Alonso84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica Quito drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente del Valle at 55% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.37.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.