24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus
Referee: Chris Penso, USA
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Columbus Crew 4-2 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Columbus Crew, 25% draw, 28% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Columbus Crew at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Columbus Crew99%Draw1%Toronto FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Gonzalo Tapiaassist: Mohamed Farsi
16'
⚽Malte Amundsenassist: Dylan Chambost
21'
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
32'
⚽Malte Amundsenassist: Dylan Chambost
48'
🔁Santiago Rodriguezout: Brooks Lennon
57'
🔁Steven Moreiraout: Marcelo Andrés Herrera
57'
⚽Brooks Lennonassist: Dylan Chambost
59'
63'
🔁Lewis Morganout: Dániel Sallói
🔁Taha Habrouneout: kevin gbamble
68'
🔁Mohamed Farsiout: Lautaro Giaccone
68'
69'
⚽Dániel Sallóiassist: Theo Corbeanu
Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
70'
78'
🔁Benjamin Kuscevicout: Emilio Aristizábal
🔁Gonzalo Tapiaout: Tarun Karumanchi
78'
81'
⚽Josh Sargentassist: Emilio Aristizábal

Match stats — Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

47%Possession53%
10Shots20
6On target7
4Corners5
2.3xG2.36

Goals against chances

Columbus Crew4 from 2.30 xGmore than the chances were worth
Toronto FC2 from 2.36 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew 4-4-2
  • 28P. SchulteG
  • 31S. MoreiraD
  • 25S. ZawadzkiD
  • 18M. AmundsenD
  • 21A. ZarouryD
  • 23M. FarsiM
  • 17S. BangouraM
  • 7D. ChambostM
  • 8S. RodríguezM
  • 16T. HabrouneF
  • 33G. TapiaF
Substitutes
  • 77Josef MartínezF
  • 11B. LennonD
  • 50T. KarumanchiM
  • 2M. HerreraD
  • 19J. ThiaréF
  • 12Cesar RuvalcabaD
  • 1N. HagenG
  • 26L. GiacconeM
  • 39K. GbambleF
Coach: L. Courtois
Toronto FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 9J. SargentF
  • 90L. MorganF
Substitutes
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 44R. EdwardsD
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 20D. SallóiF
Coach: R. Fraser

Form going into Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

Columbus Crew

Major League Soccer

  • W2-0away to FC Cincinnati18 October 2026

Toronto FC

Major League Soccer

  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Columbus Crew34145155952+747
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC

  • 21 March 2026Toronto FC 2–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 20 September 2025Columbus Crew 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 August 2025Toronto FC 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 18 September 2024Toronto FC 0–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 6 July 2024Columbus Crew 4–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Columbus Crew beat Toronto FC 4–2. The model had made a win for Columbus Crew its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gonzalo Tapia 16' for Columbus Crew, Malte Amundsen 21' for Columbus Crew, Malte Amundsen 48' for Columbus Crew, Brooks Lennon 59' for Columbus Crew, Dániel Sallói 69' for Toronto FC, Josh Sargent 81' for Toronto FC. Sent off: Sekou Tidiany Bangoura (Columbus Crew) 70'. On expected goals it finished 2.30–2.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Columbus Crew a 43.1% chance to finish in the top nine: 61.3% after a win, 32.8% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.3%, 18.2 points higher than before the match.

For Toronto FC the question was the chance to finish in the top nine, 38.2% going in: 70.1% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.7%, 17.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Columbus Crew v Toronto FC has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 47% / 25% / 28%: the biggest move is Columbus Crew's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Columbus Crew win47%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Toronto FC win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.