Fiorentina vs Como Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fiorentina 1-3 Como.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Fiorentina, 27% draw, 47% Como — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fiorentina vs Como
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 5M. PongračićD
- 33VieryD
- 27C. NdourM
- 44N. FagioliM
- 30Franco MastantuonoM
- 28PoteM
- 25A. NjieM
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 23BetoF
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 2DodôD
- 29W. GnontoF
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 21ValdeD
- 1J. ButezG
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 2M. KempfD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 6Luis MillaM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 10N. PazM
- 8M. CaqueretM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 16KaikiD
- 53Willy Kambwala NdengushiD
- 15A. LahdoM
- 5M. PerroneM
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 21S. RicciM
- 17Jesús RodríguezF
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 18E. GoldanigaD
Form going into Fiorentina vs Como
Fiorentina
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Genoa10 October 2026
- D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
Como
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Feyenoord14 October 2026
- D0-0AS Roma11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Frosinone20 September 2026
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
What these results say
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Como conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Como
- 14 February 2026Como 1–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 27 January 2026Fiorentina 1–3 ComoCoppa Italia
- 21 September 2025Fiorentina 1–2 ComoSerie A
- 16 February 2025Fiorentina 0–2 ComoSerie A
- 24 November 2024Como 0–2 FiorentinaSerie A
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Como
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Como won 3–1 at Fiorentina. The model had made a win for Como its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mattia Liberali 32' for Como, Nico Paz 36' for Como, Marin Pongračić 42' for Fiorentina, Anastasios Douvikas 56' for Como. On expected goals it finished 2.33–1.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fiorentina a 11.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.5% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Como the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.7% going in: 45.8% after a win, 38.4% after a draw, 35.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.8%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fiorentina v Como has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 29% / 28% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Fiorentina win26%▼ −3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Como win47%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.