7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Inter Miami vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale
Referee: R. Vazquez
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Inter Miami 3-3 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Inter Miami, 22% draw, 26% Charlotte — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Miami at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Miami95%Draw5%Charlotte0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
•Liel Abada
Telasco Segovia
9'
⚽Ian Fray
14'
🔁Sergio Reguilónout: Gonzalo Lujan
24'
⚽Luis Suárezassist: Germán Berterame
33'
⚽Rodrigo De Paulassist: Telasco Segovia
42'
45'
🔁Idan Toklomati Jornoout: Tyger Smalls
🔁Ian Frayout: Facundo Mura
45'
50'
⚽Liel Abadaassist: Tyger Smalls
🔁David Ayalaout: Yannick Bright
50'
55'
⚽Liel Abadaassist: Pep Biel
🔁Rodrigo De Paulout: Matías Galarza
59'
🔁Germán Berterameout: Riquelme Fillipi
59'
69'
🔁Ashley Westwoodout: Abdoulaye Doucouré
69'
🔁Harry Toffoloout: David Schnegg
69'
🔁Djibril Dianiout: Rodolfo Aloko
83'
🔁Luca De La Torreout: Brandt Bronico
88'
David Schnegg
90'
⚽Rodolfo Aloko

Match stats — Inter Miami vs Charlotte

60%Possession40%
15Shots11
5On target5
6Corners2
2.14xG1.8

Goals against chances

Inter Miami3 from 2.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Charlotte3 from 1.80 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Miami 4-3-3
  • 97D. St. ClairG
  • 17I. FrayD
  • 5CasemiroD
  • 16MicaelD
  • 3ReguilónD
  • 7R. De PaulM
  • 22D. AyalaM
  • 8T. SegoviaM
  • 10L. MessiF
  • 9L. SuárezF
  • 19G. BerterameF
Substitutes
  • 11Riquelme FillipiF
  • 42Y. BrightM
  • 2G. LujánD
  • 80M. GalarzaM
  • 37M. FalcónD
  • 4F. MuraD
  • 56Daniel PinterF
  • 34R. Ríos NovoG
  • 88A. ShawM
Coach: Kily González
Charlotte 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 15H. ToffoloD
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 8A. WestwoodM
  • 11L. AbadaM
  • 16Pep BielM
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
Substitutes
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 6A. DoucouréM
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 37R. AlokoF
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 71N. RichmondF
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
  • 20B. CoulibalyM
Coach: D. Smith

Form going into Inter Miami vs Charlotte

Inter Miami

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1away to New England Revolution2 November 2026
  • D2-2FC Cincinnati28 October 2026
  • L0-2away to New York Red Bulls24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026

Charlotte

Major League Soccer

  • W4-0Orlando City SC31 October 2026
  • W4-0CF Montreal28 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Portland Timbers25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Philadelphia Union17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Inter Miami conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Inter Miami scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Inter Miami had three goals or more.
  • Charlotte scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter Miami34161268059+2160
5Charlotte34159106651+1554

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Charlotte

  • 14 March 2026Charlotte 0–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 13 September 2025Charlotte 3–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 9 March 2025Inter Miami 1–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 28 September 2024Inter Miami 1–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 3 July 2024Charlotte 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 22 October 2023Charlotte 1–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Charlotte

Inter Miami

GoalsAssists

  • L. Messi2613
  • L. Suárez166

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter Miami and Charlotte drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Miami at 52% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Ian Fray 14' for Inter Miami, Luis Suárez 33' for Inter Miami, Rodrigo De Paul 42' for Inter Miami, Liel Abada 50' for Charlotte, Liel Abada 55' for Charlotte, Rodolfo Aloko 90' for Charlotte. On expected goals it finished 2.14–1.80.

How the call on Inter Miami v Charlotte has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 58% / 20% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 22% / 26%: the biggest move is Inter Miami's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Inter Miami win52%▼ −6
  2. Draw22%▲ +2
  3. Charlotte win26%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.