7 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Subaru Park, Philadelphia
Referee: T. Ford
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Philadelphia Union 4-1 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 59% Philadelphia Union, 21% draw, 20% Toronto FC — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Philadelphia Union at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Philadelphia Union99%Draw1%Toronto FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Quinn Sullivan
11'
⚽Cavan Sullivanassist: Indiana Vassilev
28'
⚽Quinn Sullivan (pen)
41'
Jovan Lukic
45'
•Francis Westfield
45+4'
45+7'
⚽Josh Sargentassist: Djordje Mihailovic
🔁Andre Blakeout: Andrew Rick
45'
⚽Cavan Sullivanassist: Quinn Sullivan
58'
61'
🔁Alejandro Piedrahita Díazout: Dániel Sallói
62'
🔁Lewis Morganout: Theo Corbeanu
62'
🔁Zane Monlouisout: Matheus Pereira de Souza
67'
Jonathan Osorio
⚽Bruno Damiani (pen)
73'
74'
🔁Markus Cimermancicout: Niklas Dorsch
🔁Jovan Lukicout: Benjamin Bender
77'
78'
🔁Josh Sargentout: Emilio Aristizábal
🔁Bruno Damianiout: Ezekiel Kwame Alladoh
82'
Benjamin Bender
87'
🔁Cavan Sullivanout: Malik Jakupovic
90'
90+3'
Emilio Aristizábal
90+4'
🔁Jonathan Osorioout: Derrick Etienne Jr.
🔁Quinn Sullivanout: Alejandro Bedoya
90+7'

Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

43%Possession57%
19Shots6
9On target2
6Corners1
3.61xG0.61

Goals against chances

Philadelphia Union4 from 3.61 xGabout what the chances were worth
Toronto FC1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
  • 18A. BlakeG
  • 39F. WestfieldD
  • 44Neil PierreD
  • 26N. HarrielD
  • 27K. WagnerD
  • 6Cavan SullivanM
  • 21D. Jean-JacquesM
  • 4J. LukićM
  • 19I. VassilevM
  • 9B. DamianiF
  • 33Q. SullivanF
Substitutes
  • 23E. AlladohF
  • 28A. AnelloF
  • 11A. BedoyaM
  • 16B. BenderM
  • 68J. GriffinD
  • 51M. JakupovicF
  • 2G. MartínezD
  • 14J. RafanelloM
  • 76A. RickG
Coach: Ryan Richter
Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 27A. PiedrahitaM
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 90L. MorganM
  • 9J. SargentF
Substitutes
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 77A. De RosarioG
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 44R. EdwardsD
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 20D. SallóiF
Coach: R. Fraser

Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

Philadelphia Union

Major League Soccer

  • L0-1away to FC Cincinnati31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Nashville SC29 October 2026
  • L1-2New England Revolution24 October 2026
  • D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026

Toronto FC

Major League Soccer

  • L1-3away to Atlanta United FC1 November 2026
  • W2-1DC United28 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Columbus Crew24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to New York Red Bulls17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Philadelphia Union did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Philadelphia Union conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Toronto FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Toronto FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Philadelphia Union34148126652+1450
12Toronto FC34912135267-1539

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

  • 22 April 2026Toronto FC 3–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 August 2025Philadelphia Union 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 May 2025Toronto FC 1–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2024Toronto FC 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
  • 29 May 2024Philadelphia Union 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2023Toronto FC 3–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Toronto FC

Philadelphia Union

GoalsAssists

  • M. Iloski192

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Philadelphia Union beat Toronto FC 4–1. The model had made a win for Philadelphia Union its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Cavan Sullivan 28' for Philadelphia Union, Quinn Sullivan (penalty) 41' for Philadelphia Union, Josh Sargent 45+7' for Toronto FC, Cavan Sullivan 58' for Philadelphia Union, Bruno Damiani (penalty) 73' for Philadelphia Union. On expected goals it finished 3.61–0.61.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.