New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 3-0 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% New York Red Bulls, 27% draw, 31% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New York Red Bulls at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 12D. NealisD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 60S. KoneM
- 48R. DonkorM
- 7C. CowellF
- 16J. HallF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 91M. JimenezF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 1A. MarcucciG
- 79R. MosqueraF
- 92D. NelichF
- 26T. ParkerD
- 8D. RuízM
- 6R. VoloderD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DíazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 36B. EmboloF
- 10M. AlmirónF
- 35A. FortuneM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 16Adrian GillM
- 1L. HoyosG
- 4E. MihajD
- 22F. PicaultF
- 48C. SanchezM
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer
- L2-3away to Nashville SC1 November 2026
- L2-3away to New England Revolution28 October 2026
- W2-0Inter Miami24 October 2026
- L0-2Toronto FC17 October 2026
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer
- W3-1Toronto FC1 November 2026
- L1-2away to New York City FC28 October 2026
- L2-3Chicago Fire24 October 2026
- L1-3Inter Miami17 October 2026
What these results say
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York Red Bulls scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 13 | Atlanta United FC | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 60 | -17 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
- 15 August 2026Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026Atlanta United FC 3–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Atlanta United FC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
New York Red Bulls beat Atlanta United FC 3–0. The model had made a win for New York Red Bulls its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Adri Mehmeti 31' for New York Red Bulls, Cade Cowell 54' for New York Red Bulls, Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 81' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 2.78–0.63.
How the call on New York Red Bulls v Atlanta United FC has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is New York Red Bulls's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- New York Red Bulls win42%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Atlanta United FC win31%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.