21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Lisbon
Referee: Nick Walsh
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Sporting CP 2-3 Lask Linz.

Before kick-off the model made it 80% Sporting CP, 12% draw, 8% Lask Linz — fair odds of 1.25, 8.33 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting CP at 80%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting CP1%Draw11%Lask Linz88%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Luis Suárez (pen)
5'
15'
⚽Christoph Langassist: Kasper Jorgensen
33'
Christoph Lang
45'
Sascha Horvath
52'
🔁Lukas Jungwirthout: Tobias Schützenauer
63'
⚽Sasa Kalajdzicassist: Robert Ljubicic
Issa Doumbia
64'
João Simões
65'
65'
🔁Sascha Horvathout: Alessandro Schöpf
65'
🔁Christoph Langout: Samuel Adeniran
🔁João Simõesout: Flávio Gonçalves
67'
68'
⚽Krystof Danekassist: Samuel Adeniran
72'
Sasa Kalajdzic
🔁Geny Catamoout: Luís Guilherme
79'
🔁Nestory Irankundaout: Jesse Derry
79'
🔁Issa Doumbiaout: Fotis Ioannidis
80'
83'
🔁Sasa Kalajdzicout: Moses Usor
83'
🔁Kasper Jorgensenout: Florian Flecker
⚽Luis Suárez
89'
89'
Tobias Schützenauer
90+1'
Krystof Danek

Match stats — Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

62%Possession38%
16Shots11
4On target7
7Corners4
3.28xG1.14

Goals against chances

Sporting CP2 from 3.28 xGless than the chances were worth
Lask Linz3 from 1.14 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting CP 4-3-3
  • 30KaiqueG
  • 22Iván FresnedaD
  • 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
  • 25Gonçalo InácioD
  • 20M. AraújoD
  • 8João SimõesM
  • 5Sergi AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10Geny CatamoF
  • 97L. SuárezF
  • 19N. IrankundaF
Substitutes
  • 1Rui SilvaG
  • 55Ibrahima BaD
  • 28J. DerryF
  • 58Flávio GonçalvesF
  • 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
  • 7F. IoannidisF
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 31Luis GuilhermeF
  • 4S. AndersenM
Coach: Rui Borges
Lask Linz 3-4-3
  • 1L. JungwirthG
  • 4X. MbuyambaD
  • 43AlemãoD
  • 16A. AndradeD
  • 20K. JørgensenM
  • 10R. LjubičićM
  • 30S. HorvathM
  • 25Y. DibangoM
  • 9K. DaněkF
  • 11S. KalajdzicF
  • 27C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 21M. VerhaegheD
  • 7S. AdeniranF
  • 6M. BogardeD
  • 23Daniel ElfadliM
  • 29F. FleckerF
  • 3M. FreckletonD
  • 45N. KaneF
  • 39Christof KatzmayrG
  • 18A. SchöpfM
Coach: D. Kühbauer

Form going into Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

Sporting CP

UEFA Champions League

  • W2-0away to Lens13 October 2026
  • W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026

Lask Linz

UEFA Champions League

  • L3-6Liverpool14 October 2026
  • L0-1away to AEK Athens FC8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sporting CP430184+49
16Lask Linz4202109+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

  • 1 October 2020Sporting CP 1–4 Lask LinzUEFA Europa League
  • 12 December 2019Lask Linz 3–0 Sporting CPUEFA Europa League
  • 3 October 2019Sporting CP 2–1 Lask LinzUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Lask Linz

Sporting CP

GoalsAssists

  • L. Suárez40

Lask Linz

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lask Linz won 3–2 at Sporting CP. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP at 80% and given a win for Lask Linz 8%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 13 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Suárez (penalty) 5' for Sporting CP, Christoph Lang 15' for Lask Linz, Sasa Kalajdzic 63' for Lask Linz, Krystof Danek 68' for Lask Linz, Luis Suárez 89' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 3.28–1.14.

How the call on Sporting CP v Lask Linz has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 72% / 16% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 80% / 12% / 8%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Sporting CP win80%▲ +8
  2. Draw12%▼ −4
  3. Lask Linz win8%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.