24 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Iraklis 1908 vs Kifisia Super League 1 prediction & result

Kaftanzoglio Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Alexandros Tsakalidis, Greece
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Iraklis 1908 2-3 Kifisia.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Iraklis 1908, 31% draw, 24% Kifisia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.23 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Iraklis 1908 at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Iraklis 19080%Draw4%Kifisia96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
•Ángelo Sagal
⚽Sofian Chaklaassist: Carles Soria
13'
Sofian Chakla
26'
33'
⚽Jeremy Antonisseassist: Seedy Jagne
⚽Ivi Lópezassist: Carles Soria
54'
🔁Nemanja Radojaout: Marco Krainz
58'
58'
🔁Leroy Abanda Mfomoout: Konstantinos Polykratis
58'
🔁Seedy Jagneout: Georgios Kyriopoulos
58'
🔁Apóstolos Christópoulosout: Bernardo Martins
🔁Carles Soriaout: Xande Silva
69'
69'
🔁Bernardo Martinsout: Gerson Liliano Saches Sousa
77'
⚽Jorge Pomboassist: Georgios Kyriopoulos
81'
Ángelo Sagal
🔁Vassilis Sourlisout: Kylian Kaiboue
82'
🔁Ivi Lópezout: Elvir Koljić
82'
85'
🔁Jeremy Antonisseout: Hugo Sousa
86'
⚽Ángelo Sagalassist: Konstantinos Polykratis
90+3'
Konstantinos Roukounakis

Match stats — Iraklis 1908 vs Kifisia

41%Possession59%
8Shots14
2On target6
2Corners1
0.77xG1.84

Goals against chances

Iraklis 19082 from 0.77 xGmore than the chances were worth
Kifisia3 from 1.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Iraklis 1908 3-4-2-1
  • 33G. AthanasiadisG
  • 2P. VourosD
  • 21PiñaD
  • 4S. ChaklaD
  • 30Carles SoriaM
  • 90V. SourlisM
  • 8N. RadojaM
  • 31NanuM
  • 11Ivi LópezM
  • 18R. NizetM
  • 43Pedro MarquesF
Substitutes
  • 14J. HromadaM
  • 17Nikolaos AnastasiadisM
  • 22K. KaïbouéD
  • 7E. KoljićF
  • 27M. KrainzM
  • 9K. KushtaF
  • 23Daniel Muñoz NavasD
  • 12Xande SilvaF
  • 6CarlisM
Coach: W. Mazzarri
Kifisia 4-4-2
  • 99M. RamírezG
  • 48Tiago MansoD
  • 34C. JoliboisD
  • 24R. van EijmaD
  • 23L. AbandaD
  • 28Á. SagalM
  • 19I. JagneM
  • 17K. RoukounakisM
  • 7J. AntonisseM
  • 72A. ChristópoulosF
  • 6Jorge PomboF
Substitutes
  • 8Bernardo MartinsM
  • 10Gerson SousaF
  • 1F. RobertsG
  • 26K. PolykratisD
  • 5A. PetkovD
  • 11Jordi MboulaF
  • 44Vangelis ManganasM
  • 18G. KyriopoulosF
  • 33Hugo SousaD
Coach: S. Leto

Form going into Iraklis 1908 vs Kifisia

Iraklis 1908

Super League 1

  • L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
  • W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026

Kifisia

Super League 1

  • L1-2Aris Thessalonikis18 October 2026
  • W2-0Panetolikos11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Iraklis 1908102441114-310
7Kifisia104241515014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Iraklis 1908 and Kifisia

Iraklis 1908

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Marques31

Kifisia

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pombo42
  • Á. Sagal41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Kifisia won 3–2 at Iraklis 1908. The model had leaned towards a win for Iraklis 1908 at 45% and given a win for Kifisia 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sofian Chakla 13' for Iraklis 1908, Jeremy Antonisse 33' for Kifisia, Ivi López 54' for Iraklis 1908, Jorge Pombo 77' for Kifisia, Ángelo Sagal 86' for Kifisia. On expected goals it finished 0.77–1.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Iraklis 1908 a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.2% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Kifisia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.7% going in: 18.1% after a win, 28.3% after a draw, 32.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.1%, 10.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 41% / 32% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 31% / 24%: the biggest move is Iraklis 1908's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Iraklis 1908 win45%▲ +4
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Kifisia win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.