Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Atromitos.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aris Thessalonikis, 29% draw, 29% Atromitos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aris Thessalonikis at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 2J. PétrisD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 18M. HonglaM
- 10U. RačićM
- 7B. GarréM
- 8C. KouaméM
- 77BrumaM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
- 49O. BoussaidM
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 1S. DioudisG
- 6K. GalanopoulosM
- 97F. JensenM
- 30Christos KamtsisD
- 21L. MajkićG
- 17Rafa MirF
- 1L. ChoutesiotisG
- 44D. TsakmakisD
- 4D. StavrópoulosD
- 32H. MagnússonD
- 5T. TsingarasM
- 14Dani GarcíaM
- 8S. MoutoussamyM
- 16G. PapadopoulosM
- 70SerginhoF
- 9J. PereaF
- 7S. ZuberF
- 23S. TsiloulisM
- 19Panagiotis TsantilasF
- 10S. PnevmonidisF
- 97K. OforiM
- 12M. MountesM
- 2L. LyratzisD
- 30A. KotsisM
- 6T. KaramanisD
- 17E. HoxhaM
Form going into Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
Aris Thessalonikis
Super League 1
- W2-1away to Kifisia18 October 2026
- W3-2Volos NFC11 October 2026
Atromitos
Super League 1
- L1-2away to Asteras Tripolis10 October 2026
- L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
- 7 March 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 13 September 2025Atromitos 1–2 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 26 April 2025Atromitos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 13 April 2025Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 7 December 2024Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 18 August 2024Atromitos 1–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Atromitos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 3–1. The model had made a win for Aris Thessalonikis its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Fabiano Leismann 3' for Aris Thessalonikis, Serginho 9' for Atromitos, Christian Kouamé 23' for Aris Thessalonikis, Jeremy Petris 27' for Aris Thessalonikis. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aris Thessalonikis a 11.8% chance to finish in the top four: 14.6% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.6%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
For Atromitos the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.0% going in: 22.5% after a win, 30.6% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.1%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aris Thessalonikis v Atromitos has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Aris Thessalonikis's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Aris Thessalonikis win42%▲ +3
- Draw29%=
- Atromitos win29%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.