AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: AEK Athens FC 5-0 Panetolikos.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% AEK Athens FC, 17% draw, 8% Panetolikos — fair odds of 1.33, 5.88 and 12.50.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AEK Athens FC at 75%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91A. BrignoliG
- 12L. RotaD
- 2H. MoukoudiD
- 44Filipe RelvasD
- 3S. PiliosD
- 11A. KoitaM
- 6K. KairinenM
- 27M. VitálisM
- 20P. MantalosM
- 19B. VargaF
- 90ZiniF
- 8M. GaćinovićM
- 41Marios BalamotisG
- 9L. JovićF
- 17Dimitrios KaloskamisM
- 7D. KutesaM
- 22C. LykogiannisD
- 18R. MarinM
- 23João MárioM
- 15M. TodorskiD
- 23V. XenopoulosG
- 5A. ProdromitisD
- 28L. KojićD
- 49N. StajićD
- 15Christian ManriqueD
- 90K. OpokuM
- 44N. ErakovićM
- 6M. NakambaM
- 22Diego EstebanM
- 9José Mateo Mejía PiedrahitaF
- 10A. BassiF
- 20Youssouph BadjiF
- 26Aristidis AlbanisF
- 14K. AleksićF
- 65A. ApostolopoulosD
- 19A. BregouM
- 12M. DjenepoF
- 77E. NikolaouM
- 4E. OlssonD
- 21E. PapazoisG
Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
Panetolikos
Super League 1
- L0-2Olympiakos Piraeus18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kifisia11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 20 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
- 14 December 2025Panetolikos 0–5 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 2 November 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 24 September 2025AEK Athens FC 2–1 PanetolikosCup
- 25 January 2025AEK Athens FC 1–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 5 October 2024Panetolikos 1–0 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 18 December 2023Panetolikos 2–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga60
- L. Jović50
- Zini30
Panetolikos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AEK Athens FC beat Panetolikos 5–0. The model had made a win for AEK Athens FC its most likely outcome, at 75%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Harold Moukoudi 4' for AEK Athens FC, Aboubakary Koita 23' for AEK Athens FC, Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador 38' for AEK Athens FC, Barnabás Varga (penalty) 56' for AEK Athens FC, Oleksandr Zubkov 90+2' for AEK Athens FC. On expected goals it finished 3.98–0.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AEK Athens FC a 41.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 43.7% after a win, 33.4% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.7%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Panetolikos the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.9% going in: 13.3% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.9%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AEK Athens FC v Panetolikos has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 72% / 18% / 10% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 75% / 17% / 8%: the biggest move is AEK Athens FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- AEK Athens FC win75%▲ +3
- Draw17%▼ −1
- Panetolikos win8%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.