25 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

OFI vs PAOK Super League 1 prediction & result

Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion
Referee: Christos Vergetis
Full time2 – 1

Final score: OFI 2-1 PAOK.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% OFI, 24% draw, 52% PAOK — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PAOK at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

OFI94%Draw6%PAOK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Taxiarchis Fountasassist: Aitor Cantalapiedra
38'
53'
🔁Giannis Michailidisout: Pantelis Hatzidiakos
57'
Kristijan Jakić
Athanasios Androutsos
60'
63'
Diego Costa
68'
🔁Kristijan Jakićout: Greg Taylor
68'
🔁Ognjen ugresicout: Simon Banza
68'
🔁Diego Costaout: Aritz Elustondo
🔁Lorenzo Dickmannout: Borja González
72'
🔁Andreas Bouchalakisout: Zisis Karachalios
72'
🔁Aitor Cantalapiedraout: Anastasios Chatzigiovanis
72'
Nikolaos Athanasiou
78'
🔁Thiago Nussout: Kenan Kodro
79'
⚽Athanasios Androutsos (pen)
83'
86'
🔁Taison Barcellos Fredaout: Shola Shoretire
89'
⚽Simon Banzaassist: Pantelis Hatzidiakos
🔁Taxiarchis Fountasout: Giannis Apostolakis
89'
Anastasios Chatzigiovanis
90+5'

Match stats — OFI vs PAOK

42%Possession58%
12Shots26
7On target8
5Corners9
2.83xG2.23

Goals against chances

OFI2 from 2.83 xGless than the chances were worth
PAOK1 from 2.23 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

OFI 3-4-2-1
  • 1K. LiloG
  • 15A. PoungourasD
  • 43D. NikolaouD
  • 2K. KrizmanićD
  • 24L. DickmannM
  • 14T. AndroutsosM
  • 41A. BouchalakisM
  • 3N. AthanasiouM
  • 10Aitor CantalapiedraM
  • 11T. FountasM
  • 18T. NussF
Substitutes
  • 7T. ChatzigiovanisM
  • 21G. ApostolakisM
  • 17Borja GonzálezD
  • 23Manuel KalafatisG
  • 8G. KanellópoulosM
  • 6Z. KarachaliosM
  • 13P. KatsikasG
  • 19K. KodroF
  • 5K. KostoulasD
Coach: C. Kontis
PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TsiftsisG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 19Diego CostaD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 18K. JakićM
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 16O. UgresićM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 27C. NdiayeF
Substitutes
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 52D. ChatsidisF
  • 6ElustondoD
  • 13D. GiannoulisD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
  • 56A. MythouF
  • 7B. SantamaríaM
Coach: A. Lisci

Form going into OFI vs PAOK

OFI

Super League 1

  • L3-4away to Kalamata18 October 2026
  • L0-3away to AEK Athens FC10 October 2026

PAOK

Super League 1

  • W2-1Iraklis 190818 October 2026
  • L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6OFI105231412+217
4PAOK106131913+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: OFI vs PAOK

  • 2 September 2026PAOK 0–0 OFICup
  • 25 April 2026PAOK 2–3 OFICup
  • 18 January 2026PAOK 3–0 OFISuper League 1
  • 14 September 2025OFI 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 8 February 2025OFI 0–5 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 27 October 2024PAOK 1–2 OFISuper League 1

Leading scorers: OFI and PAOK

OFI

GoalsAssists

  • K. Kodro40

PAOK

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ndiaye40
  • A. Živković35
  • D. Pelkas30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

OFI beat PAOK 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for PAOK at 52% and given a win for OFI 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Taxiarchis Fountas 38' for OFI, Athanasios Androutsos (penalty) 83' for OFI, Simon Banza 89' for PAOK. On expected goals it finished 2.83–2.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave OFI a 5.3% chance to finish in the top four: 8.9% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.9%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For PAOK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 89.0% going in: 92.2% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 84.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.1%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on OFI v PAOK has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 19% / 23% / 58% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 24% / 24% / 52%: the biggest move is PAOK's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. OFI win24%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. PAOK win52%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.