Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Lillestrom, 25% draw, 48% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12P. DahlbergG
- 3S. OttesenD
- 5S. FossD
- 28R. GabrielsenD
- 26Y. PaintsilD
- 29Y. IbrahimajM
- 21F. OttossonM
- 14G. NyheimM
- 22D. BassiF
- 10T. Lehne OlsenF
- 20VáF
- 7L. AlperudM
- 11F. ElkærD
- 8F. GulbrandsenF
- 1S. HagerupG
- 17E. KitolanoM
- 47S. KristiansenD
- 18K. KrygårdM
- 16H. MellandM
- 15G. NordhF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 14T. KuboM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 23A. ZakharyanM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 12J. OchiengF
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 15Pablo MarínM
- 29Alex GarciaF
Form going into Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Lillestrom
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1away to Sparta Praha15 October 2026
- L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise15 October 2026
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Real Sociedad
Lillestrom
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Gómez30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Sociedad won 6–0 at Lillestrom. The model had made a win for Real Sociedad its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Sergio Gómez 25' for Real Sociedad, Sergio Gómez 27' for Real Sociedad, Luka Sučić 33' for Real Sociedad, Orri Steinn Óskarsson 64' for Real Sociedad, Luka Sučić 72' for Real Sociedad, Arsen Zakharyan 80' for Real Sociedad. On expected goals it finished 2.29–2.46.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.