8 November 2026, 13:45 UTC

Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Referee: Daniel Stefanski
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Jagiellonia 1-0 GKS Katowice.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Jagiellonia, 26% draw, 33% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jagiellonia at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Pau Resta
37'
Mateusz·Kowalczyk
🔁Kajetan·Szmytout: Sergio Lozano
63'
🔁Jesús Imazout: Ousmane Sow
64'
64'
🔁Mateusz Wdowiakout: Borja Galan
64'
🔁Marcel Wedrychowskiout: Eman Marković
⚽Ilia Shkurin (OG)
69'
78'
🔁Mateusz·Kowalczykout: Sebastian Milewski
78'
🔁Kacper Lukasiakout: Bartosz Wolski
82'
•Marcin Wasielewski
83'
Marcin Wasielewski
85'
🔁Marcin Wasielewskiout: Erik Jirka
🔁Kamil Jóźwiakout: jakub kucharski
90+3'

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice

57%Possession43%
22Shots12
6On target2
8Corners7
2.1xG1.34

Goals against chances

Jagiellonia1 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth
GKS Katowice0 from 1.34 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 72K. JóźwiakM
  • 11Jesús ImazM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 99N. PrelecF
Substitutes
  • 8D. DrachalM
  • 14H. FinndellM
  • 70J. KucharskiM
  • 21Sergio LozanoM
  • 62S. PankiewiczD
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 30O. SowM
  • 5Bernardo VitalD
Coach: A. Siemieniec
GKS Katowice 3-4-3
  • 87G. KobylakG
  • 30A. CzerwińskiD
  • 6L. KlemenzD
  • 55Pau RestaD
  • 23M. WasielewskiM
  • 19K. ŁukasiakM
  • 77M. KowalczykM
  • 7M. WdowiakM
  • 10M. WędrychowskiF
  • 17I. ShkurinF
  • 27B. NowakF
Substitutes
  • 68B. WolskiM
  • 14M. OlsenD
  • 22S. MilewskiM
  • 15E. MarkovićM
  • 21Jakub KokosinskiF
  • 1M. KikolskiG
  • 97E. JirkaM
  • 4A. JędrychD
  • 8Borja GalánM
Coach: R. Górak

Form going into Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice

Jagiellonia

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-1away to Wieczysta Kraków31 October 2026
  • W1-0Wisla Plock25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
  • L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026

GKS Katowice

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-2Widzew Łódź31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Korona Kielce24 October 2026
  • L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
  • W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jagiellonia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Jagiellonia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Jagiellonia137061818021
8GKS Katowice147072520+521

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice

  • 17 May 2026GKS Katowice 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 17 March 2026Jagiellonia 2–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 4 December 2025GKS Katowice 3–1 JagielloniaCup
  • 2 March 2025Jagiellonia 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
  • 25 August 2024GKS Katowice 3–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice

Jagiellonia

GoalsAssists

  • N. Prelec42

GKS Katowice

GoalsAssists

  • I. Shkurin82
  • B. Nowak78

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Jagiellonia beat GKS Katowice 1–0. The model had made a win for Jagiellonia its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Ilia Shkurin (own goal) 69' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 2.10–1.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave GKS Katowice a 6.2% chance to finish in the top two: 8.1% after a win, 5.5% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.4%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jagiellonia v GKS Katowice has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is Jagiellonia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Jagiellonia win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. GKS Katowice win33%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.