Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Legia Warszawa 2-4 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Legia Warszawa, 24% draw, 20% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiątkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5Robert DezielD
- 22P. WszołekM
- 4D. SzymańskiM
- 53W. UrbańskiM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 62Franciszek StępniewskiF
- 79Ł. ZjawińskiF
- 27Bogdan V'YunnikF
- 24Z. ArsenićD
- 6Henrique ArreiolM
- 21V. BichakhchyanM
- 1I. BrkićG
- 14A. ČolakF
- 2S. FukudaD
- 7J. KuchtaF
- 13A. RecaD
- 23M. ŠevčíkM
- 71T. KarićG
- 7F. TudorD
- 25B. RacovițanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 21T. PieńkoM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 26E. OtienoM
- 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 9P. MakuchF
- 3A. BrorssonD
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 15O. KwiatkowskiM
- 44B. MirčetićM
- 88A. MolnarM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 19N. ZätterströmD
- 29W. Å»oÅneczkoG
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa
- D0-0away to Gornik Zabrze30 October 2026
- L1-2Lech Poznan25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cracovia Krakow17 October 2026
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa
- W3-1Pogon Szczecin2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
- L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
What these results say
- Legia Warszawa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Legia Warszawa had two goals or fewer.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Raków Częstochowa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
- 22 March 2026Legia Warszawa 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 20 September 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 16 March 2025Raków Częstochowa 3–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 15 September 2024Legia Warszawa 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 13 April 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 8 October 2023Legia Warszawa 1–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Raków Częstochowa won 4–2 at Legia Warszawa. The model had leaned towards a win for Legia Warszawa at 56% and given a win for Raków Częstochowa 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Patryk Makuch 21' for Raków Częstochowa, Kacper Chodyna 56' for Legia Warszawa, Erick Otieno 58' for Raków Częstochowa, Oliwier Kwiatkowski 61' for Raków Częstochowa, Vahan Bicachcjan 63' for Legia Warszawa, Oliwier Kwiatkowski 72' for Raków Częstochowa. On expected goals it finished 0.95–2.80.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Legia Warszawa a 33.9% chance to finish in the top two: 37.2% after a win, 30.2% after a draw, 23.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.8%, 10.1 points lower than before the match.
For Raków Częstochowa the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.7% going in: 21.5% after a win, 28.1% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.5%, 9.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.