8 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Lens vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction & result

Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Referee: Willy Delajod
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Lens 1-2 Marseille.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Lens, 24% draw, 33% Marseille — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lens at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lens0%Draw6%Marseille94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Amine Gouiri
⚽Florian Thauvinassist: Florian Sotoca
20'
🔁Thorgan Hazardout: Mezian Soares Mesloub
68'
🔁Amadou Haidaraout: Michaël Cuisance
68'
78'
🔁Amine Haritout: Keyliane Abdallah
78'
🔁Himad Abdelliout: Angel Gomes
Yassine Titraoui
79'
81'
Amine Gouiri
82'
⚽Keyliane Abdallah
🔁Jonathan Graditout: Ruben Aguilar
85'
🔁Florian Sotocaout: Junior Kadile
85'
🔁Saud Abdulhamidout: Michał Skóraś
88'
90+1'
🔁Tochukwu Nnadiout: Geoffrey Kondogbia
90+2'
Jeffrey De Lange

Match stats — Lens vs Marseille

41%Possession59%
13Shots16
6On target5
4Corners6
2.13xG2.25

Goals against chances

Lens1 from 2.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Marseille2 from 2.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lens 3-4-2-1
  • 40R. RisserG
  • 24J. GraditD
  • 6S. BaidooD
  • 20J. TodiboD
  • 23Saud AbdulhamidM
  • 8Y. TitraouiM
  • 21A. HaidaraM
  • 14M. UdolM
  • 10F. ThauvinM
  • 7F. SotocaM
  • 9T. HazardF
Substitutes
  • 32K. AntonioD
  • 2R. AguilarD
  • 5A. BulatovićM
  • 27M. CuisanceM
  • 37Moussa DiarraF
  • 16M. GorgelinG
  • 28J. KadileF
  • 38M. SoaresM
  • 22M. SkóraśF
Coach: Yannick Cahuzac
Marseille 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. de LangeG
  • 22T. WeahD
  • 4C. Egan-RileyD
  • 21N. AguerdD
  • 25U. GarciaD
  • 6T. NnadiM
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 77A. HaritM
  • 8H. AbdelliM
  • 14Igor PaixãoM
  • 9A. GouiriF
Substitutes
  • 48K. AbdallahF
  • 74K. BezahafD
  • 7A. GomesM
  • 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
  • 19G. KondogbiaM
  • 92T. VermotG
  • 18B. MeitéD
  • 46E. MbondoD
  • 11N. MaupayF
Coach: Bruno Genesio

Form going into Lens vs Marseille

Lens

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to Lille30 October 2026
  • W2-1Paris FC24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Estac Troyes17 October 2026
  • W2-1Lyon9 October 2026

Marseille

Ligue 1

  • W2-0Toulouse1 November 2026
  • W4-3Le Havre25 October 2026
  • W5-2away to Angers18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Lens conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lens won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lens scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Marseille won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Marseille scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Lens104151715+213
4Marseille106042214+818

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lens vs Marseille

  • 24 January 2026Marseille 3–1 LensLigue 1
  • 25 October 2025Lens 2–1 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 8 March 2025Marseille 0–1 LensLigue 1
  • 23 November 2024Lens 1–3 MarseilleLigue 1
  • 28 April 2024Marseille 2–1 LensLigue 1
  • 12 November 2023Lens 1–0 MarseilleLigue 1

The full Lens vs Marseille record →

Leading scorers: Lens and Marseille

Lens

GoalsAssists

  • F. Thauvin57

Marseille

GoalsAssists

  • A. Gouiri73
  • A. Harit31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Marseille won 2–1 at Lens. The model had leaned towards a win for Lens at 43% and given a win for Marseille 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Amine Gouiri 2' for Marseille, Florian Thauvin 20' for Lens, Keyliane Abdallah 82' for Marseille. On expected goals it finished 2.13–2.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lens a 13.1% chance to finish in the top three: 16.5% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 9.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 4 points lower than before the match.

For Marseille the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 28.1% going in: 34.6% after a win, 27.8% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 6.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.