8 November 2026, 19:15 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Referee: Karol Arys
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Lech Poznan 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Lech Poznan, 22% draw, 15% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lech Poznan at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan0%Draw9%Zaglebie Lubin91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
⚽Marcel Regula
45'
🔁Aleks Lawniczakout: Damian Michalski
45'
🔁Filip Szymczakout: Sebastian Kerk
46'
Roman Yakuba
⚽Patrick Walemark (pen)
52'
56'
⚽Marcel Regulaassist: Mateusz Dziewiatowski
65'
🔁Mateusz Dziewiatowskiout: Jakub·Sypek
🔁Leo Bengtssonout: Luis Palma
65'
🔁antoni kozubalout: Kamil Jakobczyk
65'
Terry Yegbe
67'
70'
Jakub·Sypek
🔁Radosław Murawskiout: Gustav Berggren
74'
78'
🔁David Čolinaout: Jakub Kolan
82'
Damian Michalski
83'
🔁Damian Dąbrowskiout: Arkadiusz Wozniak
🔁Joel Pereiraout: Robert Gumny
89'
⚽Michal Gurgulassist: Luis Palma
90+4'

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin

74%Possession26%
30Shots6
10On target4
12Corners1
2.88xG0.9

Goals against chances

Lech Poznan2 from 2.88 xGless than the chances were worth
Zaglebie Lubin2 from 0.90 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 59T. YegbeD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 43A. KozubalM
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 24F. JagiełłoM
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 7Y. AgneroF
Substitutes
  • 44Eryk ŚledzińskiM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 5G. BerggrenM
  • 11D. HåkansM
  • 54K. JakóbczykF
  • 90H. JanyszkaD
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Zaglebie Lubin 3-4-2-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 16J. ĆorlukaM
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 6D. ČolinaM
  • 44M. RegułaM
  • 20M. DziewiatowskiM
  • 18F. SzymczakF
Substitutes
  • 19S. ŁyczkoM
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 88M. MlinarićF
  • 99C. PopielecM
  • 7J. SypekM
  • 17L. SzabóF
  • 94M. UrbanskiD
  • 11A. WoźniakM
  • 26J. KolanM
Coach: L. Ojrzynski

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin

Lech Poznan

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-1Wisla Krakow31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Legia Warszawa25 October 2026
  • W6-1Korona Kielce18 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Slask Wroclaw10 October 2026

Zaglebie Lubin

Ekstraklasa

  • W1-0Korona Kielce2 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Motor Lublin23 October 2026
  • W1-0Jagiellonia18 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Lech Poznan won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lech Poznan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Zaglebie Lubin scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lech Poznan1310213413+2132
6Zaglebie Lubin146531817+123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin

  • 15 March 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 12 September 2025Lech Poznan 1–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 23 February 2025Lech Poznan 3–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 17 August 2024Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 10 February 2024Lech Poznan 2–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 6 August 2023Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • P. Wålemark73
  • Pablo Rodríguez67
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Zaglebie Lubin

GoalsAssists

  • M. Reguła50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lech Poznan at 63% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Marcel Regula 45+1' for Zaglebie Lubin, Patrick Walemark (penalty) 52' for Lech Poznan, Marcel Regula 56' for Zaglebie Lubin, Michal Gurgul 90+4' for Lech Poznan. Sent off: Damian Michalski (Zaglebie Lubin) 82'. On expected goals it finished 2.88–0.90.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lech Poznan a 81.4% chance to win the league: 83.4% after a win, 79.2% after a draw, 74.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 79.2%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.